'India and the Persian Connection'

There is a whole lot of talk about how India does not have a robust enough strategic culture. So "Geek at Large", in its own small way, has decided to start hosting guest posts, bringing to the fore varied perspectives in the realms of geopolitics and military affairs.

Today's post deals with the ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf and the complex Indian response to it where Ananth Durai explains India's understated role in managing the crisis and how it has actually thrown up new opportunities for both widening and deepening our engagement with various players in the region.

India and the Persian connection

Much has been made of the recent move by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to extradite a terrorist who was involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks - many press reports cited the growing relationship in security and intelligence matters between the two countries. It is indeed true that the growing high-level intelligence interaction between Indian and Saudi counterparts has led to arrests of other wanted terrorists in the Kingdom (not just Lashkar terror operatives). But this is just one part of the multi-faceted relationship between the Kingdom and India.

One of the chief drivers of the growing relationship between the India and Saudi Arabia is the perceived Iranian threat to the latter. Over the past 15 years, Iran has managed to expand its influence into countries that were once perceived to be less of a security threat towards the Saudi Kingdom. Today, Iran is believed to have major control over Iraq - via influence over the politico- religious system (with Gulf leaders referring to the Iraqi PM as an "Iranian stooge"), and the two major Shia Iraqi militias (Mahdi Army and the SCIRI - Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq).Iran also has in place a strong alliance with the Alawite-led Syrian leadership and the oft-spoken-about relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

With the removal of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt - a staunch ally of the Saudis and one who was relied upon as a strong pillar of support especially on the security and defence side of things - the Kingdom sees itself surrounded by emergent problems. The newly elected President of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, is overtly promising to strengthen ties with Iran and when you couple this with the continuing instability in Bahrain and Yemen, it is completely understandable why the KSA in particular and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) states in general are looking increasingly nervous.

Indeed, one can but imagine the effect that a nuclear Iran would have on the security affairs of the various Gulf Kingdoms. As a result of this KSA has no choice but to build strong ties with regional powers such as India, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey. It is also a time when the GCC with KSA, UAE and Qatar at its core is taking proactive steps to defend its security. One standout example of the same would be these countries lending support to Syrian rebels - by providing arms, finances as well as diplomatic support in order to break the Iranian alliance framework in Syria and Lebanon.

With all this happening in the Saudi neighbourhood, the last thing that the GCC needs is an Indo-Pak war which would remove two regional powers who have the capability to intervene favourably in the event of a war between itself and Iran. KSA of course also relies heavily on Pakistani military personnel to man its own armed forces in exchange for the transfer of military equipment, and perhaps for financing up to 30 per cent of the Pakistani military budget. However, it is likely that Pakistan would request these personnel to return in the event of a war with India, which would make the Gulf security situation even more precarious.

The quiet visitors to New Delhi

Last December saw some quiet visits by a few Gulf dignitaries to Delhi - one of whom was Prince Turki Al-Faisal (the former Saudi Intelligence chief) and another was a senior advisor to the Kingdom of Kuwait. Officially they were in India to interact with sundry mandarins in South Bloc and visit the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) but truth be told these visits were probably of much greater importance than is readily understood.

As it turns out, the GCC has been seeking a mediator with Iran for some time over the nuclear issue. Initially, the Sultanate of Oman was chosen due to its relatively close ties with Iran. However, as one Gulf official put it, "No big nation listens to a small nation". This then led to Turkey being asked to mediate between the Iranians and the Arabs. However, the Gulf Kingdoms have been disappointed as Turkey has been unable to deal with the Iranians effectively.

The message conveyed from these visits was that the Gulf leadership is impressed with the way India has been able to deal with the Iranians - particularly, the mechanism created to deal with the subject of Afghanistan (where all difficult issues are discussed) and also India's ties with the entire spectrum of the Iranian leadership. The Gulf Kingdoms, it seems, want India to utilise its relationship with Iran in order to mediate on the nuclear issue. In reference to this, sources have confirmed that India has indeed opened a channel with the Iranians although how effective this has been is, as yet, unclear.

As a quid pro quo, there is an expectation in Indian quarters that the Gulf Kingdoms who have considerable influence in Pakistan can help moderate Pakistani behaviour on terrorism (and other areas of concern), increase investments in Indian infrastructure which will help develop the economy (as it did for the US), growth in all areas of the strategic relationship and pave the way for a FTA to be signed shortly.

Afghanistan

While the Gulf nations are pushing us to help settle the Iranian nuclear file amicably - we can't obviously forget our very real interests in Iran. Since Pakistan has blocked India's access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, India has no choice but to build close relations with Iran. Iran is central to our trade with Central Asia and Afghanistan. Our interests there are not merely trade-oriented but also involve security and defence matters in Eurasia which have a direct impact on us.

The development of the Iranian port of Chabahar and multi-modal transport (rail and road) into Afghanistan as well as Central Asia will allow us access to a highly resource rich region that can be utilised to support our economy. It will also serve as a shorter route for Indian goods heading towards Europe, thus helping to increase the competitiveness of Indian goods.

However, there is also a military aspect to such infrastructure. Having access to roads and rail will give us the capability, should the need arise, to intervene in a large way (subject to Russian and Iranian support of course). All this suggests that India has tough decisions ahead in order to balance our interests in the Gulf with our interests in Iran.

The nuclear file: what lies ahead

Gulf sources acknowledge that sanctions need time to work and a long-term solution is required to fully resolve the issue. It appears there is both a short-term and a long-term strategy at play here with Gulf states, Israel and the west in agreement on these aspects. The short-term strategy is to do all that is possible to delay the Iranian nuclear project by any means possible (including a last resort military strike on Iranian nuclear sites). The long term one, that of regime change (without the need to intervene militarily), can delay the prospects of a nuclear Iran indefinitely if it ever comes to fruition.

A former chief of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, acknowledged that air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites will only delay the project by two years at the most. However, in a recent interview, Dagan admitted that an air strike or regional war will result in people getting behind the regime and hence extending its life. Many US, GCC and Israeli officials agree with the view expressed by Dagan and conclude that the Iranian regime is under deep pressure to deliver results to the Iranian people. Dennis Ross (former Special Advisor to the Obama Administration on the Persian Gulf), in a recent conference, described Iran as similar to the Soviet Union in 1981 where ideology is no longer believed and the veneer is wearing thin. Therefore it is clear that all sides consider a regional war is not the best option although it may get sparked of suddenly as we shall see below.

Concurrently, the aim of the sanctions regime on Iran is to force the Iranian leadership to give up their nuclear weapons programme. If they don't, the pressure on the economy and the Iranian people will result in some sort of Arab spring-type revolution. The use of cyber weapons by western and Israeli intelligence has been particularly successful in the case of Iran with US officials suggesting that they have managed to delay the programme by a couple of years. Going forward, we can expect to see the collective use of sanctions, cyber attacks as well as a naval blockade by the west and Israel.

Why a naval blockade?

A nuclear Iran is not going to be in the interests of either Russia or China as Iran would naturally compete in the same sphere of influence of these two nations, particularly what Russia considers as its back yard, Central Asia. As a result, a blockade imposed by the west will not be really opposed by these two and it will mean that the Iranians will have no option but to cooperate with the world powers on their nuclear programme. After all, attacking your only allies, Russia and China, will not help the Iranians.

Interestingly, the US military has apparently conducted a number of joint exercises off the coast of North Carolina with their Russian and European counterparts, dealing with the "repulsion of an attack by small-sized vessels, helicopter rescue operations, personnel transfer procedures and joint manoeuvring" - operational scenarios that could well describe an asymmetric naval showdown with the Iranian Navy.

After a strike

Some alarming estimates say that Iran is only 8 months away from achieving the capability to build a nuclear weapon and hence Israel as well as the west may be pressured to act militarily before then. In the event of such a scenario, India will have to prepare contingency plans to evacuate the millions of Indians in the region as well as secure energy supplies for itself in the event Iran chooses to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf forces are already on red alert in the region as war between the US/west and Iran could take place by miscalculation on either side, not to mention the high concentration of military vessels/aircraft in the Arabian Gulf where the chances of accidental shots being fired and escalating into a conflict are rather high. Contingency measures have been put in place for the last 6 months by the GCC fearing the worst.

One hopes preparations for such a scenario are being made by Indian military planners as well.

Summing it all up

The growing threat of war would mean that India will have to source oil from more stable neighbourhoods. Africa and South America are possible solutions. India will also need to develop its own shale oil and gas resources. The threat of war will also mean that oil prices will remain sticky at least for the next one to two years and the New Delhi will have to take this into consideration when drawing up its financial plans.

(Ananth Durai is a London-based commentator on regional affairs with a special interest in West Asian political and security issues. He currently works for an accounting firm and has worked extensively within the financial industry. The views expressed by him are personal. You can catch him on Twitter@ADurai)

Originally reported here: http://ibnlive.in.com/blogs/sauravjha/2976/63684/guest-post-1-india-and-the-persian-connection-by-a-durai.html

Regional Update 7th July 2012

7th July Update


- KASOTC, Jordan - site where CIA is training FSA to take over chemical weapons depot sites. Sites are spread across the country and are guarded by the Air Force Intelligence alawite units who are very loyal to the regime.

- 2 key objectives that western alliance is preparing for - break down of the Syrian govt and seizure of the chemical weapon depots

- Jordanian SF will secure the southern Syrian city of Mafraq (in the event of a collapse of the Syrian govt), currently a location for palestinians that are migrating from the Syrian camps (Yarmouk etc) into Jordan - they expect the flow to increase as the situation gets worse

- Beijing is building ties with the Syrian opposition - SNC delegation was discretely in Beijing and met the PRC Foreign min and other big wigs last month.

- State Dept met with FSA delegation on June 10th . Frederic Hof is the man to watch with regards to the US policy on Syria.

- Turkish MIT (Turkish intelligence) is coordinating delivery of weapons along with the CIA to the Syrian rebels. These weapons are financed by KSA and Qatar.

- Syrian Regime is struggling to pay Shabiha fighters who are at the front line of the battle against rebels. Funds from Iraq and Iran are not enough to cover the expenses so the Private sector is being roped in - businesses that are run by regime cronies are using funds to meet the shortfall in cash and foreign currency. Several businesses have so far continued to operate without any problems of sanctions etc.

- Syria is using cyprus to make short runs to pick up fuel. PDVSA (venezuela) has made the major deliveries of fuel.

- The Obama administration answer to issues on Syria/Iran is "no movement on the file until after the elections". President Obama doesn't want anything to happen to destroy his re-election chances.


Iran

- Expect more cyber attacks, Sanctions and eventually a naval blockade by world powers (incl. Russia and PRC).  Lets not forget a nuclear Iran will compete with Russia and PRC in their sphere's of influence, so a nuclear Iran is not in their interest either. The US along with Russia, France & the UK conducted a number of joint exercises off the coast of North Carolina to practice for the blockade. LINK and LINK

- Threat of war deterred the wise but not the desperate


Iraq

- GCC/Kurds lobbying in the US together to prevent the sale of the F-16s to Iraq. Problem here is how can the GCC defend themselves when Iraq is under Iran's fold and in essence defend attack from Iraq (with decent air support) and Iran.

- Iran is trying desperately keep maliki in power and is making interventions.

Regional Update - May 5th

Our first topic of discussion today is Syria:

Protests have been reported in most of the Damascus neighbourhoods and violence is generally increasing against the people.

It is likely Syrian operations will slowly switch to a safe zone where the regime will protect the minority Alawite population against genocide, ethinic cleansing. The system will attempt to sell this to the international media and the UN Security council. This is probably the final card that the regime will play before its demise.

King Abdullah had told Hillary Clinton in their meeting in late march that they won't intervene in Syria via money and arms until early May because they wanted to give the Annan plan a chance. But we are here today and the Annan plan has largely failed as the bloodshed still continues.

Iraq's Maliki has begun to ensure Asad's soldiers receives their payments by the end of April (no public information has been released yet as to Maliki's role in Syria) in addition to allowing Iran to funnel arms.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi

There appears to be a growing discontent in Iraq over the growing role of Iran's clerical establishment in politics and religious affairs. A slow alliance appears to be forming with Grand Ayatollah Sistani leading this coalition against the Iranian attempts. Tehran has attempted to push Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as an alternative to Sistani! It is incredibly difficult to replace Al Sistani and also a rather stupid move by Iran as it is bound to evoke a lot of anger from the ordinary Iraqi.


The Kurdish government will also be joining the anti Maliki grouping, there is now a renewed effort to remove Al Maliki. There is a possibility of protesters demonstrating against the Maliki government corruption and inability to provide improvement to basic services such as healthcare and most importantly electricity as was seen last year.

Israel and Iran Clash

What can we expect in the coming weeks?

Israeli escalations will continue in the coming days in the lead up to the meeting between the P5 + 1 and Iran. It is a fact that the Iranian concessions made as disclosed in the previous post was due to Israeli pressure and the unpredictability of the Israeli's.

What was interesting is that the Netanyahu had mentioned that 4 countries had made preparations for war against Iran. US, Britain and France are likely to be the main candidates.

Add this to the fact that polls show that the Israeli public opinion is that they want the Israeli government to conduct a pre-emptive strike against Iran.

AFP Link
"The poll, published in Haaretz newspaper, found that 65 percent of Jewish Israelis agreed with the statement that "the price Israel would have to pay for living with the threat of an Iranian bomb would be greater than the price it would pay for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities."

The recent report by the Israeli Defence and Security Committee in the Knesset said that if war broke out, it would encompass Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran against Israel. The report further stated that they strongly believe that the proportion of civilian casualties as a result of Katyusha rockets will be 300 - down from 500 of the previous estimate. But lets not forget that Hezbollah have been provided with SCUD - D missiles provided by the Syrian regime after the revolution started.

I am sure many of you must be wondering about the recent public statements of Yuval Diskin (Former Shin Bet Chief) and Meir Dagan and their criticisim of Netanyahu's positions on Iran. Most recently Ehud Olmert has joined this chorus against the Israeli leadership claiming that this war would be catastrophic for Israeli national security.

What do would an Iranian intelligence analyst be thinking after watching and reading the statements of these officials?

They would be highly suspicious as to whether this is an Israeli attempt at strategic deception that has been used for a long time against the Arabs. Why?
Netanyahu is getting so popular to the extent that he is considering calling early elections.

The Likud party appears to be consilidating its position in the government so that it is less susceptible to pressure from smaller parties especially Kadima. Barak will remain the chairman of the Labour party and his team is already in the government. What does all this mean? The government is united to face the Iranian nuclear threat. Could this explain the reason why the Iranian ambassador mentioned that Iran would be ready to implement additional protocols of the NPT allowing suprise IAEA team visits to Iranian nuclear sites.

Also notable is the UAE's claim that they can restore the 3 disputed islands to UAE control via military power if the political decision is made (made by Dubai Police Chief Dhahi Khalfan).Technically it is possible, but the GCC strategists will not do this due to the political cost of the operation. Seizing control of the 3 islands would mean that the Iranian people would unite behind the regime.

For example. on April 23rd in the Journal of Middle East Studies, Ataollah Mohajerani (a person who spent his life in various positions in the Iranian regime )  wrote an article entitled "Israel's attack on Iran: A moment of Irony or truth"  in which he says that the Iranians will unite including reformers and supporters of the green movement if attacked because national security and independence of the state is more important than democracy.

What the gulf take away from this is that this will be the reaction of the Iranian people in the event of any clash - i.e. even the 3 islands issue.

Regional Update - Nov 4th

This week has been particularly action packed with Israel testing a ballistic missile system, Turkey threatening to send its warships to escort aid ships to the port of Gaza, Syria - Arab League deals, UK stands ready to deploy its Trident equipped submarines in Arabian Gulf waters to support an allied mission to destroyIranian nuclear sites.

Syria

We continue where we left off from our 2 part series on the Syrian situation.

We are of the opinion that large number of alawite leaders (both businessmen and military) are of the view that it is now too late to save the system. However, the question they seem to be pondering is whether they will continue to have a role in a post Assad world? Will the wider public take it easy on them? Looking at Egypt,  businessmen who were allied with the Mubarak regime are today being prosecuted and targeted, so we should probably conclude that Syrian public will not go easy on the alawite community. Therefore It is likely that several Alawites may fight right to the end and prolong the brutal attack on citizens. This will lead to further growing international pressure. Just yesterday the Chinese asked the Syrian government to resolve the issue.

Is the Syrian government agreement with the Arab League to implement reforms a sign of strength or weakness? Probably weakness. In our opinion, this is just to buy more time, on the ground not a lot seems to have changed as more deaths were reported yesterday and today.

The Alawite military can still rely on a vast number of loyal soldiers, therefore this is a recipe for civil war. So therefore efforts are underway to convince the army to conduct a coup in order to have an orderly transition of power preventing a civil war from taking place. Will this be successful? Maybe.

Keep in mind, that for Obama and Sarkozy elections are coming up. It is easier for them to show external success than to show domestic economic successes, so you will see Sarko and Obama more active with regards to Syria.


Iran

The international pressure on Iran seems to be increasing. If the IAEA and western/GCC intelligence reports are to be believed it appears that Iran is speeding up its nuclear activity.   If this is not resolved diplomatically, war is the last option. Therefore, countries require more time to prepare for the eventual war.

The Gulf intelligence agencies have compiled an intelligence report titeled "The nuclearisation of Iran". This is meant to be issued prior to the GCC Defence ministers meeting in Riyadh sometime in November/December. According to the report, Iran has recently tested  a neutron initiator, which is used to detonate anuclear bomb at the Fordo site. It also mentioned that Khamanei has taken full contol of the nuclear file, away from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The report also notes that North Korea recently sold Iran an MCNPX 2.6.0 computer program that simulates the neutron and photon flows in nuclear processes.A North Korean team of engineers were in Tehran to train defence ministry officials on the program.

There appears to be a lot of deception and psy-ops going on. First Britain confirmed that it will take part in any operation to support an allied mission to destroy Iranian nuclear sites by deploying its Trident equipped Submarines. The British subs were in the Arabian gulf a few years ago conducting manuevers with other allied forces.

Raising the nuclear issue about Syria's attempts to acquire nuclear capability was also we think, a means to attack Iran diplomatically and also keep the pressure on the Syrian regime. Transfer of US troops from Iraq to the Gulf is also due to the fact that there is an estimate that Iran will respond to the removal of the Assad regime by retaliating in the Gulf. This will be done via proxy groups such as Mahdi army in Iraq (the IRGC is busy professionalising the Mahdi Army and building it on the lines of Hezbollah), Hezbollah and others.

Israel Air Force planes participating in an aviation drill at Decimomannu air base, Italy, Oct. 2011.

Another interesting piece of news was the NATO exercise with the Israeli Air force, where F-16s travelled 1700km to bases in Italy, which was supposedly a dress rehearsal for an attack on Iran. Then also the leak of news to the media about PM Netanyahu convincing his cabinet to agree to military strikes on Iran. Our opinion is that this is nothing but strategic deception in order to maintain the pressure on Iran and divert its focus away from saving the Syrian regime. These exercises are also due to the fact that western alliance do not rule out some response by the Iranian regime to the removal of the Assad regime (their ally).

The decision for Erdogan to send Turkish Naval ships to escort aid ships to Gaza may also be strategic deception. Most people know that the Turkish Navy has no capability to take on Israeli navy, therefore there is a possibilitythat this serves as  a cover for some other action.

India and the Syrian Imbroglio: Part 1

India and the Syrian Imbroglio

President Assad has been a good friend of India, as was his father Hafez Al Assad. Both Syria and India are secular countries, have been partners in NAM and have shared several common interests (economic and diplomatic). However, India has expressed its concern over the current situation in Syria and that too with good reason. According to the UN over 3000 people have been killed since unrest broke out in March.

 

India along with several nations (Brazil and South Africa) have sensed that another military intervention by is in the offing. In order to prevent another Libya like situation, India along with what is termed as IBSA – India, Brazil and South Africa, visited Damascus and had told President Assad that he needs to implement multi party reforms and thereby alter article 8 of the Syrian constitution which states that only the Baath party can select its leader. In return, Assad told his Indian interlocutors that he did make some mistakes when handling the situation and a national dialogue was in process to solve the prevailing problems. Many analysts have opined that this is at best a stall tactic for Assad to retain power.

The Syrian protests are being done for genuine economic and political reasons, however, there are nations in the region who see it as in their interests to remove Assad and are taking advantage of the prevailing situation. The Assad regime has been allied with Iran over several issues – Iraq, continued support of the Palestinian groups such as Hamas and military support to Hezbollah. Iran has deployed extensive military support to Hezbollah via Syria.

Iran sees the protection of the Syrian regime as part of their strategic interests. As part of this process, Iran has sent police forces, militia, advisers and has brought in Hezbollah militiants to help Syria deal with the current unrest. The aim is to utilize and apply the experience learned in dealing with the unrest in Iran after Pres. Ahmadinejad’s victory.

The GCC along with an alliance of other countries were formed around 5 years ago to coordinate against what was seen as growing Iranian expansionism. The GCC had felt threatened as Iran had extended its influence throughout the region. In Iraq – today the GCC views the Iraqi PM as an “Iranian stooge” and for example Iranian backed shia militants who are extremely powerful in the south of Iraq have fired scud missiles into Kuwait. Lebanon has now a Hezbollah dominated government which is naturally aligned with Iranian interests. In Yemen, Houthi rebels who are in the Northwest of Yemen were battling Saudi troops as well as the Yemeni government troops and had seized several villages on the Saudi border. The GCC as well as Yemen had accused Iran of funding and arming the rebels. With the ongoing unrest in Yemen, there are fears in Riyadh that Iran could take advantage of the situation. In Egypt, Iran has attempted to build relations with the government as well as pro-Iran groups. Lastly, the GCC had also accused Iran of backing the unrest in Bahrain – the US had confirmed that they had intelligence to confirm this view. Several Iranian spy cells have been dismantled in the last few months in Kuwait and Bahrain.

All these moves by Iran, have made the GCC feel surrounded and feel threatened. As a result, the GCC and its allies have decided the time has come to aggressively remove Iranian influence in the region. As part of this process, the GCC has decided to turn up the rhetoric and coordinate with Sunni Turkey against Syrian President Assad.

The removal of President Assad will deliver the first defeat to Iranian influence in the region. It will cause the supply lines to Lebanese Hezbollah to be damaged and thereby weaken Hezbollah. The Iranian regime has been utilizing Hezbollah for its nefarious activities in the Gulf, a swift military force that can be used to defend Iranian interests in the region and fight the GCC in a war (if it comes to that).

What will we see now? 

The Leader of the Free Syrian Army

President Assad has now crossed the point of no return. Intelligence sources have pointed out that defections have taken place in the Syrian conscript army. Slowly but surely if the killings of the Syrian people continue, the Syrian army begin to defect with the protesters – as soldiers question the orders provided by the Syrian military high command.

The UAE is said to have already offered Assad asylum. However, the GCC as well as the Turkish intelligence have concluded that Assad’s fall will come quickly. Hence, now you are seeing a tightening of the noose around Assad’s kneck. Turkey has today announced sanctions. It is highly possible that Turkey will create a “buffer zone” where Syrian refugees will receive military training and help continue the fight.  Turkey will be forced to take the action as it cannot see Syria’s Kurds assert their independence which will automatically instigate Kurds in Turkey.

Erdogan’s rhetoric against Israel was nothing but a cover for his inaction in Syria and to win over the Arab street. Erdogan’s Turkey has initiated intelligence cooperation with Israel since 6th June due to the prevailing situation in Syria.

Iran hasn’t sat quietly watching the developments, it has issued strong warnings to Turkey. It conducted a major missile exercise in the North west which was sent as a message to Ankara that any military intervention in Syria will be met with war against Turkey. As a result Turkey has beefed up its anti missile batteries being deployed, western ships have also amassed off the Turkish coast including some with AEGIS class anti missile systems to protect Europe from Iranian missiles.

The view is that Assad has crossed the point of no return – even if multi party reforms are initiated, the people will demand an answer to the killings and for the President to be held responsible.

Lebanese army officers have suggested that the prices for weapons in black markets within Lebanon have spiked due to demand from Syria. Some sources have said that the Assad’s close circle has tightened to around 3 or 4 people.

India’s position

In light of the mounting evidence in support of Assad’s downfall and his continuing massacres. It is time for India to work together with the UN Security council to prevent further massacres from taking place.

However, India as well as China are indeed wary of the fact that the UN Security council vote against Syria could be used as a historical precedent to interfere in their respective countries. Therefore, it might be prudent for India to remain neutral in this crisis but ensure that its interests in Syria are protected.

Libya No Fly Zone - The Plan Plus Update on Bahrain

Libya

Our readers will know that Middle East Analysis has been fairly accurate so far on the Libyan situation. We accurately predicted that Gaddafi would use his Air force decisively to win this war with the rebels unless a No Fly Zone was implemented.

The French military have been busy planning strikes in Libya as part of the No Fly Zone implementation.


Gaddafi's air assets - He has Mig 21's, Mig 23s,a number of Sukhoi 22's and Galib trainer aircraft armed with Air to Surface rockets that have been in use in current operations. All in all, Gaddafi has only 20 air planes that are in working conditions. Out of the 4 Mirages that he had, 2 were flown to Malta as pilots defected.
 

Libyan Air Force Chinooks

In addition to this, Gaddafi has a decent sized helicopter fleet, which are estimated to be around 40. These compromise Chinooks (which incidentally played a signifcant and decisive role in the recent offensive on rebel held cities) that were recently upgraded in Italy as well as a number of Russian attack helicopters. Many of the pilots appear to be from the Syrian Air Force (sent by Bashaar Al Assad as part of a long standing pact that is in place between the 2 countries).

The Plan - Our sources confirm to us that the plan is for Western air forces to destroy Gaddafi's Air Force fleet in the initial strikes. This is due to the importance of the aircraft in striking rebel positions in the last week. This would be key to establishing the no fly zone. The US generals early on had hinted that a No Fly Zone would also mean taking out Libyan Surface to Air Missile sites - this maybe a difficult part of establishing the No Fly Zone but is very much possible.

A French Rafale M combat aircraft performs a catapult assisted launch from the flight deck of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65).

We speculate that UK would utilise bases in Cyprus and Sicily. The US appears to be interested in using Egyptian air bases to launch their raids. While the French will probably decide to deploy from the South of France which isn't too far from the Libyan cities.

News reports also sight 2 British Nimrod aircraft that were due to be scrapped this month have been pressed into service.

A crucial test for the coalition force would be to control and coordinate this operation as they have done in the past.

Future issues - Another worry in Washington is that Gaddafi has recruited mercenaries from tribes in Mali that are close to the AQIM area of operations. So the questions being asked is, what will happen once these tribal mercenaries return to their home in Mali with their weapons? Will they swell the AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Maghreb) ranks? As a result, there is a worry that the enitre North Africa may become destabilised. Washington has begun to meet closely with Algerian counter terror advisors, to consult and cooperate on these issues.

Bahrain - Muqtada Al Sadr and some shia groups are debating opening a front against the KSA or Kuwait in solidarity with Bahraini Shia.

These moves are under the assumption that the Saudi led Peninsula Shield Forces are there to put down any unrest. We strongly deny that the Saudi forces are there to deal with the protesters or conduct any sort of riot control.

The KSA led PSF force is there for 2 reasons:
1) Assurance to the Bahraini King, that the KSA will intervene only if the King feels there is a threat to his rule/monarchy.
2) Prevention of any Iranian adventurism.

In fact, the Crown Prince had spoken to the opposition members to explain to them the reasons for the GCC forces deployment. This shows to us that the GCC troops are not there to deal specifically with the internal security issues. The BDF along with the other Ministry of Interior Forces as well as the Bahrain National Guard appear more than capable to deal with any serious unrest.

We expect dialogue to continue, one way or another, as a civil war will create more long term problems, which may end up being a bigger threat to the ruling powers and play into the hands of Iran. This has also been the common view amongst the rulers.

There have been reports of arrested members of the opposition circulating the news and the blogosphere. We see this as an attempt to force the opposition back to the table and solve their problems with dialogue. It remains to be seen if the plans will work.

Thanks for Reading! As always please continue emailing us at eye.on.middleeast "at" gmail "dot" com.

Egypt plus Oman - UAE Spy Issue - Update

This will be a quick update:

The editor has been watching the Egyptian events unfold. Yesterday, Egyptian President has agreed not to stand for re-election and neither will his son Gamal Mubarak be allowed to do so. Similar statement also came out from Yemen's president.

From what we are told Ambassador Frank Wisner travelled to Cairo and met with Mohammed El Baradei first. After this meeting, he has met senior Egyptian officials to convey messages from the White House. The white house wanted Mubarak to step down immediately and allow the Army to control Egypt during the transition period until elections in 2011. We believe that this is so that the US and Israel are given enough time to decide the best course of action. Israel was infact, against the decision to ask Mubarak to step down, they see Mubarak as a guarantor to the 1979 Camp David accord. US and Israel must be increasingly interested in seeing Omar Suleiman stay on. 

We feel that it was unlikely that Mubarak would have wanted to stay on as President anyway, in light of his health condition. Mubarak wanted to pass on the presidency to his son Gamal in the previous elections. 

Iran's position

The editor does not doubt that Iran will attempt to increase its influence in Egypt. Iran must already be making plans for action such as approaching members of parliament who are considered to be pro-Iranian. Iran will try its best to expand influence and perhaps fund election expenses for pro-Iranian members (or parties) to be elected into Parliament. This would naturally draw GCC into this quest for influence over Egypt. We expect to see a similar situation to Lebanon where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia spent a huge amount of money (rumours state that these are around a $1billion) on helping Saad Harriri become re-elected. As it stands, Israel appears to be the most worried of the situation, and as much as the GCC, it may be Israel that will step in to help a pro-Israeli party to be elected.

Saudi Arabia was not shy to protect its interests in the current Egyptian unrest. Reports have been received that King Abdullah had set up a team comprising of Security and Military officials to keep an eye on the situation in Egypt. If the situation was to further deteriorate, it would have seen KSA send in troops to take any US made equipment. The editor feels that this is to protect KSA from having these weapons be used against them.

The Future

We at the blog see it as imperative for US and Israel to continue to back Omar Suleiman, who is seen as a man that Israel and the West can do business with. Omar Suleiman handles numerous complicated issues on behalf of the Mubarak regime - especially the Palestine file. Naturally this see's Omar Suleiman making regular trips to Tel Aviv. 

Oman and UAE Spy Issue

Oman uncovers 'spy network but UAE denies any link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12320859

The authorities in Oman say they have uncovered a network of spies working for the United Arab Emirates, according to the state news agency.
The alleged agents for the UAE are said to have spied on the Omani government and military.
The UAE government denies any knowledge of - or link with - such a network, according to its news agency.
The neighbouring countries are members of the Gulf Co-operation Council and normally enjoy good relations.
Government sources in Oman say the ring was discovered some months ago and that a number of Omani nationals have been arrested.
The spies may have been interested in the issue of the succession of Oman's Sultan Qaboos, according to a security official quoted by the Agence France-Presse news agency.
The sultan is 70 years old and does not have children.
But others suggested the alleged spy ring could be more related to regional politics.
"One possibility is that the UAE wants to know more about Iran-Oman relations because of Tehran and Muscat's long ties in security and military co-operation," Theodore Karasik, from the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, told Reuters news agency.
Oman has close relations with Iran, partly because the two countries are joint gatekeepers of the Strait of Hormuz, the route for 40% of the world's oil tanker traffic.
But the sultanate also has strong military and diplomatic ties with the West.
The UAE is a staunch ally of the United States.
UAE authorities received the news with "shock and surprise" according to the Wam news agency.
"The UAE expresses its full willingness to co-operate with... Oman in any investigations that it carries out in full transparency to uncover (those) who try to mar relations between the two countries," said a foreign ministry statement.

Editor can reveal that the spies arrested were working for the UAE State Security services under the control of Hazza Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The target appears to be senior members of the government, specifically members who appeared to be too close to Iran. The members infiltrated the Cabinet, military and the ISS (Internal Security Service). Rumours circulating appear to place the number of people arrested at 15. 

Abu Dhabi and Omani intelligence officials have met several times since the arrests in order to discuss the issue, but talks appear to have broken down. Hence the release using the official Oman News Agency. 

HM Sultan Qaboos had refused to travel to the GCC Summit held in Abu Dhabi, this was indeed due to learning of the arrests of the spies. 

It is no secret that several members of the cabinet including the Foreign minister are favouring increasing political, economic and military ties with Iran. This may have been the reason why the Emirati's had decided to increase intelligence gathering in Oman.

The retaliation from the UAE have included sending back several senior Omani army officers serving in Emirati ranks (as is common in the GCC military's). Oman suspects that several of these officers will continue to stay in touch with Emirati intelligence.

Thanks for reading.

Dubai Police Chief Lt Gen Khalifan's comments in the press

The Dubai police chief had recently made comments regarding expat workers. You can find the first article from Gulf News describing his statements on Qatar TV.

Dubai Police chief calls on them to stop relying on expat workers

* By Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief

Manama: Dubai's Police Chief supported a claim that if the population of expatriate workers continued to rise in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states at the current pace, Gulf citizens would soon be marginalised.

"The possibility of GCC nationals turning into a minority in their own countries cannot be ruled out if a law is, for instance, promulgated and enforced to naturalise expatriates," Lieutenant Colonel Dahi Khalfan Tamim said.

He was reacting to questions from the audience at a popular monthly call-in programme on Qatar Television Laqum Al Qarar (It Is Your Decision).

The audience comprised mostly young people from across the Gulf, Qatari daily The Peninsula reported yesterday.

The discussion addressed the issue if the rising numbers of foreign workers posed a serious threat to the GCC identity and culture, and if so, what steps the governments in the region could take to reduce the danger.

If the GCC governments do not take bold steps to check the inflow of foreign workforce, a day could come when locals would be marginalised in their own countries and become like Red Indians in the United States, Lt Gen Dahi said.

Unending chain

Citing examples, he said Malayalees (people from the south Indian state of Kerala) and Iranians who came to the Gulf and ran small neighbourhood stores eventually became millionaires.

"Why can't we run these stores which, after all, we legally own? But we do not want to do such work," he said. An Indian driver is hired by a Gulf family and then he manages to bring a relative even if there is no job for him. The relative hunts for a job and lands one. This is an unending chain," Dahi said. Ministers should bring to the notice of the GCC Rulers the rising threat the heavy influx of foreign workers poses to GCC identity and culture," he said.

However, when asked if the problem could be tackled to some extent if more workers were brought in from Arab countries, Lt Gen Dahi said: "I do agree that they [Arab expatriates] are better than non-Arabs."

Here is an interview in Khaleej Times giving Lt Gen Dahi Khalifan a chance to clarify his comments.

Dhahi for expat quota to preserve identities

Amira Agarib

27 December 2010, 6:32 AM

Dubai Police Chief Lt General Dhahi Khalfan Tamim recommended a quota system for all nationalities in the UAE to keep the expat population in the country in check.

He made the comment while reaffirming his remarks made to a television channel on Saturday that expats are a threat to the national identity of Emiratis as well as GCC nationals.

Speaking to Khaleej Times, the Commander-in-Chief of the Dubai Police said the Emirati society, which has traditionally been open to other cultures, has the right to preserve its national identity.

The outspoken police chief warned that expatriates may endanger the identity of the UAE nationals in a way that they could influence the culture and the language of the local children, noting that expatriates have brought with them many things that are today misunderstood to be the traditional elements of Emirati culture.

“Today Emiratis are very concerned about their national identity, as the number of foreigners is rising rapidly and nationals are now a minority in their own country. To keep the balance, I recommended a quota system that would ensure that the number of other nationalities should not be more than UAE nationals and Arabs.”

Warning against the mass influx of foreigners to the country, he said only those people who are needed for the jobs should be allowed in the country.

Pointing out the rules of many other countries that discourage import of foreign workforce, he said: “If we go to any of other country to reside, it is considered offensive; they do not allow us easily to reside, work or invest. Each country has its own rules and conditions and we have to do the same to preserve our national identity.

However, he reassured that the country has no hostilities towards foreigners. “But we are concerned about losing our identity, heritage and language. The new generation of Emiratis feel increasingly isolated and expatriates could not observe Emirati culture and adapt to it.”

Dhahi had made the comments on Qatar TV on Saturday, likening the case of GCC nationals to that of Red Indians in the US.

 These are some interesting comments.

Now if you are an expat, one would feel that these comments are a little unfair. Expats are not coming to Dubai (or for that matter any GCC country) to seek welfare benefits (unlike in the UK or in Europe, where healthcare/education is free for all residents). Expats of Dubai pay for everything, schooling, electricity, tax (where applicable) and most importantly health, expats do not seek any benefits from the government. Expats are there to WORK, because there are jobs there that Emirati's are not as qualified to do or do not want to do. In fact, the current rules where Emirati's must be a partner in the business has made the local people lazy and happy about getting cash without having to do much work.

What about the expat who was born in one of these GCC countries? He is a foreigner in the only place he knows well, he goes "back home" to his/her native only to find people calling them foreigners there. They have no identity.

 But if you are an Emirati, you can understand Lt Gen. Khalifan's view. "Where is my culture?" "We want our people to benefit from the growth". It must be hard going to your local  grocery shop to see foreigners working there and having to communicate in a foreign language (English, Malayalam or Farsi).

The attitude of the leadership in most GCC partners, is not to provide nationality to expats in order to preserve their welfare for the local(indigenous) population. Frankly speaking this cements the power for the leaders as their subjects are happy (they have money, education, a world class healthcare system thanks to the visionary leaders). Imagine the effect it would have on the national population if all of a sudden expats were given nationality? Budgets would have to significantly increase, healthcare/education costs would shoot up. This would affect leaders positions politically as the level of service will decrease.

The Sultanate of Oman has offered a slightly different policy to other GCC nations, I believe the rules are if a expat has been resident there for over 25 years and can speak arabic (there are other additional rules here that need to be fulfilled), may naturalise. The country has also provided nationality to many expats who have contributed significantly to the development. This demonstrates fairness and vision of HM Sultan Qaboos.

What is the solution to the Dubai Police Chief's comments?

As in any other western country, seeking naturalisation in the GCC should involve adopting to the local culture. In the UK for example, a naturalisation applicant needs to show english proficiency and must sit a MCQ test on British history/culture. I think adopting something similar maybe a viable option.

Today, the global economy relies on a workforce that can move in and out of the country easily. The Conservative/Liberal Democrat government in the UK have similar problems with the number of immigrants coming to the country. They responded by having a proposal limiting the number of visas. This is NOT A viable option, simply because no MNC in the country will accept this and it is causing a storm. I can place a wager that this promise will not be filled by the current government in the UK simply because this is impossible to do in todays open global economy.


UAE & Oman rely on global trade (Think of the ports in the UAE, Salalah in Oman, HH Sheikh Mohammed's visionary airports in Dubai), it needs Indian IT professionals to come in and do their work, it needs foreign cleaners, it needs more foreign businessmen for trade in their freezones. Its this "openness" that contributes significantly to the growth of the GCC economies. Having a high expat population is a consequence to today's global economy. Closing yourself to the world will be disaster for the economies in the Gulf. Thankfully, the leaders are smart and recognise this.

My guess is that the GCC will provide naturalisation without the benefits that the local "indigenous" population receive such as subsidised healthcare/education etc at some point in the future.

PS. My message to expats is spare a thought for the locals and the leaders of the countries. My message to the "locals" is spare a thought for the expats and don't forget they are contributing to the growth of your great countries.

Thanks for Reading.

Added later:
The GCC should continue to build world class education infrastructure, provide the tools in order for their citizens (locals) to benefit and be able to play a productive part in their economies. Recently, there were complaints on quality (cheating allegations, bribes to professors in order for students to pass exams) of graduates produced at GCC universities. The government and the leadership need to pay attention to this area and ensure that QUALITY of graduates are improved.

The Middle East (or West Asia in MEA parlance)

The aim of this blog is to keep upto date with West Asian current affairs (in particular the GCC) and express views on the Middle East in the eyes of India.

The blog will also cover a wide array of subjects impacting politics in the Middle East. I intend to post views on major incidents in the past such as the Israel - Hezbollah war, local politics of the UAE (as a result of the fallout from Dubai's economic collapse) and Mumbai Attacks (26/11).

The people of India and the Middle East have had historical relations for well over 2000 years. 

The strength of these relations over history has always been related to the sea trade and the geography.

India's closest ally in the Middle East has always been the Sultanate of Oman. My next post will be a walkthrough of relations between the Sultanate of Oman and the republic of India.

Dear Readers, if you have any news and views please email eye.on.middleeast "at" gmail dot com

Many Thanks.