Regional Update 7th July 2012

7th July Update


- KASOTC, Jordan - site where CIA is training FSA to take over chemical weapons depot sites. Sites are spread across the country and are guarded by the Air Force Intelligence alawite units who are very loyal to the regime.

- 2 key objectives that western alliance is preparing for - break down of the Syrian govt and seizure of the chemical weapon depots

- Jordanian SF will secure the southern Syrian city of Mafraq (in the event of a collapse of the Syrian govt), currently a location for palestinians that are migrating from the Syrian camps (Yarmouk etc) into Jordan - they expect the flow to increase as the situation gets worse

- Beijing is building ties with the Syrian opposition - SNC delegation was discretely in Beijing and met the PRC Foreign min and other big wigs last month.

- State Dept met with FSA delegation on June 10th . Frederic Hof is the man to watch with regards to the US policy on Syria.

- Turkish MIT (Turkish intelligence) is coordinating delivery of weapons along with the CIA to the Syrian rebels. These weapons are financed by KSA and Qatar.

- Syrian Regime is struggling to pay Shabiha fighters who are at the front line of the battle against rebels. Funds from Iraq and Iran are not enough to cover the expenses so the Private sector is being roped in - businesses that are run by regime cronies are using funds to meet the shortfall in cash and foreign currency. Several businesses have so far continued to operate without any problems of sanctions etc.

- Syria is using cyprus to make short runs to pick up fuel. PDVSA (venezuela) has made the major deliveries of fuel.

- The Obama administration answer to issues on Syria/Iran is "no movement on the file until after the elections". President Obama doesn't want anything to happen to destroy his re-election chances.


Iran

- Expect more cyber attacks, Sanctions and eventually a naval blockade by world powers (incl. Russia and PRC).  Lets not forget a nuclear Iran will compete with Russia and PRC in their sphere's of influence, so a nuclear Iran is not in their interest either. The US along with Russia, France & the UK conducted a number of joint exercises off the coast of North Carolina to practice for the blockade. LINK and LINK

- Threat of war deterred the wise but not the desperate


Iraq

- GCC/Kurds lobbying in the US together to prevent the sale of the F-16s to Iraq. Problem here is how can the GCC defend themselves when Iraq is under Iran's fold and in essence defend attack from Iraq (with decent air support) and Iran.

- Iran is trying desperately keep maliki in power and is making interventions.