Regional Update 7th July 2012

7th July Update


- KASOTC, Jordan - site where CIA is training FSA to take over chemical weapons depot sites. Sites are spread across the country and are guarded by the Air Force Intelligence alawite units who are very loyal to the regime.

- 2 key objectives that western alliance is preparing for - break down of the Syrian govt and seizure of the chemical weapon depots

- Jordanian SF will secure the southern Syrian city of Mafraq (in the event of a collapse of the Syrian govt), currently a location for palestinians that are migrating from the Syrian camps (Yarmouk etc) into Jordan - they expect the flow to increase as the situation gets worse

- Beijing is building ties with the Syrian opposition - SNC delegation was discretely in Beijing and met the PRC Foreign min and other big wigs last month.

- State Dept met with FSA delegation on June 10th . Frederic Hof is the man to watch with regards to the US policy on Syria.

- Turkish MIT (Turkish intelligence) is coordinating delivery of weapons along with the CIA to the Syrian rebels. These weapons are financed by KSA and Qatar.

- Syrian Regime is struggling to pay Shabiha fighters who are at the front line of the battle against rebels. Funds from Iraq and Iran are not enough to cover the expenses so the Private sector is being roped in - businesses that are run by regime cronies are using funds to meet the shortfall in cash and foreign currency. Several businesses have so far continued to operate without any problems of sanctions etc.

- Syria is using cyprus to make short runs to pick up fuel. PDVSA (venezuela) has made the major deliveries of fuel.

- The Obama administration answer to issues on Syria/Iran is "no movement on the file until after the elections". President Obama doesn't want anything to happen to destroy his re-election chances.


Iran

- Expect more cyber attacks, Sanctions and eventually a naval blockade by world powers (incl. Russia and PRC).  Lets not forget a nuclear Iran will compete with Russia and PRC in their sphere's of influence, so a nuclear Iran is not in their interest either. The US along with Russia, France & the UK conducted a number of joint exercises off the coast of North Carolina to practice for the blockade. LINK and LINK

- Threat of war deterred the wise but not the desperate


Iraq

- GCC/Kurds lobbying in the US together to prevent the sale of the F-16s to Iraq. Problem here is how can the GCC defend themselves when Iraq is under Iran's fold and in essence defend attack from Iraq (with decent air support) and Iran.

- Iran is trying desperately keep maliki in power and is making interventions.

Regional Update

Egypt

Egyptian Foreign minister Nabil Al Arabi appears to have been sacked due to favouring closer relations with Iran. It is likely that GCC may have put Egypt under pressure to withdraw this policy. We are aware that Murad Muwaifi (The head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate) had met with his KSA counterpart and explained to him Egypt's decision to build up relations with Iran. Since this meeting, Egypt appears to have withdrawn from a brief flirt with Tehran. UAE and KSA continue to provide aid to Egypt.

The current Foreign Minister of Egypt made this statement in Bahrain: "The GCC security is an integral part of the collective Arab security and a strategic depth to Egypt’s national security".

Syria  

The Syrian regime appears to have sustained serious damage in the recent protests. Protests are still continuing in the Hama region. There appears to be a lot of defections from the lower rank sunni dominated parts of the military. The 76th Battallion appears to have suffered the most with over 100 defections (So bad that Maher Assad controlled troop had to move in to back up the 76th battalion). The air force appears to be pre-dominantly a sunni force and the Assad regime has sent out strong warnings to sunni commanders that defections should not be tolerated.

We continue to believe that with further sanctions targetting Assad supporters, key Syrian businessmen and with vast open/unpoliced/unfenced borders, it is likely that the regime will collapse. Therefore expect the worst in Syria.

Also reports from Lebanon suggest that black market prices for weapons have increased significantly due to Syrian demand. This also suggests that some countries are financing rebels in Syria.

Turkey has decided to use diplomacy and refrained from a military response yet.

We have learned that the Turkish intelligence agencies have sent warnings to Syrian and Iranian counterparts, not to harm Syrian refugees and expatriate Syrians in Turkey. This has raised the tension with Iran recently.

Shahab 3 Range

It is likely that the threat of joint US and Turkish intervention in Syria, led to Iran announcing the Great Prophet 6 military exercise. This exercise took place in the Northern borders close to Turkey and showcased the nuclear capable Shahab 3 missile (capable of striking targets in Europe). 

Iraq/Iran

Iran is developing the Mahdi army and Badr Brigade (part of the supreme Islamic Council) into a professional militia/force, that is an alternate to Hezbollah (or as powerful as Hezbollah).


The IRGC told them the plan is to reorganise the militia and arm them. So intructors will be giving them training in weapons handling and Missile launching. So the aim is to develop a force that can intervene in Syria, Lebanon - in support of Hezbollah and augment hezbollah operations in setting up covert cells in Kuwait, Bahrain, KSA. So if Hezbollah can't, the Mahdi army will take over setting up cells in GCC.

Tensions are rising again as Iran wants to make sure that the US does not retain any presence in Afghanistan and in Iraq. In order to achieve this, Iran has partnered with Pakistan and Iraq. Therefore, Iran has delivered more weapons to be used against the US troops in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Sadr has issued more threats and has even permitted suicide attacks against the US troops.

The US has wanted to change its role from a force that is currently policing the streets into a pure counter terror role and support Iraqi forces or Afghan National Army operations against insurgents. We can expect this to occur over the next few months.

"The current discussions cover both, and there are very clear capability gaps that the Iraqi security forces are going to have," Mullen said, citing air defense, aviation and elements of intelligence.


Iran

We understand that western intelligence agencies have concluded that Iran has now produced its first nuclear bomb prototype that is ready to be tested. Iran took advantage of the chaos during the "Arab Spring" to accelerate its program. Recently announcing that Iran will send a monkey into space. Any military analyst will point out that being able to put a payload into space will demonstrate ICBM capability. Rumours are circulating that a blame game has begun within western intelligence agencies.

It is likely that KSA and Turkey will come out with a plan to test nuclear weapons. Prince Turki has been the most vocal in this. Pakistan meanwhile has been expanding its nuclear weapons stockpile significantly and is likely to transfer the weapons technology. We have already reported in a previous article on GCC - Pakistan relations, of Saudi nuclear scientists receiving training in Pakistan. The GCC nuclear program is likely to be based in Khamis Mushayt and we believe that the program has been running for some years.

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Pyongyang has relaunched North Korea’s enriched uranium production, a move that has coincided with Iran’s stocks growing.

In recent months, several European security services including the DGSE and MI6 have been swapping notes about intelligence from U.S. sources that Tehran has been receiving deliveries of UF6, uranium hexafluoride, used in centrifugation enrichment processes. This news comes at a time when Pyongyang is known to have relaunched its production of nuclear fuel.

The existence of a secret supply source from North Korea, if it turns out to be true, would strengthen the case for tougher sanctions against Iran. A report into secret technological exchange between the two countries, written by the United Nations’ panel of experts that monitors compliance with UN sanctions imposed on Pyongyang, was submitted to the Security Council in May. The report, which has not yet been published on China’s request, covers bilateral cooperation on ballistic missiles. On June 10th, the U.N renewed the panel of experts’ mandate.

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KSA

KSA and the US have partnered together on anti-AQAP operations. Leon Panetta and Gen. Petraeus have both told lawmakers that GCC will put "maximum" pressure on the AQAP. Prince Turki Al-Faisal and Prince Bandar bin Sultan were said to have lobbied the senior KSA leaders to allow a construction of an airbase for CIA/JSOC to operate drones from KSA. It appears that this base may not be operational yet and it is likely that some missions that began in May are operating from a neighbouring country as well as KSA.

The reason behind KSA okay'ing the plan was to prevent AQAP being given a free hand to operate in Yemen as this could affect the survival of the Kingdom. 

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Thank you for reading! Feel free to email us your comments at "eye.on.middleeast" at gmail dot com

Dubai Police Chief Lt Gen Khalifan's comments in the press

The Dubai police chief had recently made comments regarding expat workers. You can find the first article from Gulf News describing his statements on Qatar TV.

Dubai Police chief calls on them to stop relying on expat workers

* By Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief

Manama: Dubai's Police Chief supported a claim that if the population of expatriate workers continued to rise in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states at the current pace, Gulf citizens would soon be marginalised.

"The possibility of GCC nationals turning into a minority in their own countries cannot be ruled out if a law is, for instance, promulgated and enforced to naturalise expatriates," Lieutenant Colonel Dahi Khalfan Tamim said.

He was reacting to questions from the audience at a popular monthly call-in programme on Qatar Television Laqum Al Qarar (It Is Your Decision).

The audience comprised mostly young people from across the Gulf, Qatari daily The Peninsula reported yesterday.

The discussion addressed the issue if the rising numbers of foreign workers posed a serious threat to the GCC identity and culture, and if so, what steps the governments in the region could take to reduce the danger.

If the GCC governments do not take bold steps to check the inflow of foreign workforce, a day could come when locals would be marginalised in their own countries and become like Red Indians in the United States, Lt Gen Dahi said.

Unending chain

Citing examples, he said Malayalees (people from the south Indian state of Kerala) and Iranians who came to the Gulf and ran small neighbourhood stores eventually became millionaires.

"Why can't we run these stores which, after all, we legally own? But we do not want to do such work," he said. An Indian driver is hired by a Gulf family and then he manages to bring a relative even if there is no job for him. The relative hunts for a job and lands one. This is an unending chain," Dahi said. Ministers should bring to the notice of the GCC Rulers the rising threat the heavy influx of foreign workers poses to GCC identity and culture," he said.

However, when asked if the problem could be tackled to some extent if more workers were brought in from Arab countries, Lt Gen Dahi said: "I do agree that they [Arab expatriates] are better than non-Arabs."

Here is an interview in Khaleej Times giving Lt Gen Dahi Khalifan a chance to clarify his comments.

Dhahi for expat quota to preserve identities

Amira Agarib

27 December 2010, 6:32 AM

Dubai Police Chief Lt General Dhahi Khalfan Tamim recommended a quota system for all nationalities in the UAE to keep the expat population in the country in check.

He made the comment while reaffirming his remarks made to a television channel on Saturday that expats are a threat to the national identity of Emiratis as well as GCC nationals.

Speaking to Khaleej Times, the Commander-in-Chief of the Dubai Police said the Emirati society, which has traditionally been open to other cultures, has the right to preserve its national identity.

The outspoken police chief warned that expatriates may endanger the identity of the UAE nationals in a way that they could influence the culture and the language of the local children, noting that expatriates have brought with them many things that are today misunderstood to be the traditional elements of Emirati culture.

“Today Emiratis are very concerned about their national identity, as the number of foreigners is rising rapidly and nationals are now a minority in their own country. To keep the balance, I recommended a quota system that would ensure that the number of other nationalities should not be more than UAE nationals and Arabs.”

Warning against the mass influx of foreigners to the country, he said only those people who are needed for the jobs should be allowed in the country.

Pointing out the rules of many other countries that discourage import of foreign workforce, he said: “If we go to any of other country to reside, it is considered offensive; they do not allow us easily to reside, work or invest. Each country has its own rules and conditions and we have to do the same to preserve our national identity.

However, he reassured that the country has no hostilities towards foreigners. “But we are concerned about losing our identity, heritage and language. The new generation of Emiratis feel increasingly isolated and expatriates could not observe Emirati culture and adapt to it.”

Dhahi had made the comments on Qatar TV on Saturday, likening the case of GCC nationals to that of Red Indians in the US.

 These are some interesting comments.

Now if you are an expat, one would feel that these comments are a little unfair. Expats are not coming to Dubai (or for that matter any GCC country) to seek welfare benefits (unlike in the UK or in Europe, where healthcare/education is free for all residents). Expats of Dubai pay for everything, schooling, electricity, tax (where applicable) and most importantly health, expats do not seek any benefits from the government. Expats are there to WORK, because there are jobs there that Emirati's are not as qualified to do or do not want to do. In fact, the current rules where Emirati's must be a partner in the business has made the local people lazy and happy about getting cash without having to do much work.

What about the expat who was born in one of these GCC countries? He is a foreigner in the only place he knows well, he goes "back home" to his/her native only to find people calling them foreigners there. They have no identity.

 But if you are an Emirati, you can understand Lt Gen. Khalifan's view. "Where is my culture?" "We want our people to benefit from the growth". It must be hard going to your local  grocery shop to see foreigners working there and having to communicate in a foreign language (English, Malayalam or Farsi).

The attitude of the leadership in most GCC partners, is not to provide nationality to expats in order to preserve their welfare for the local(indigenous) population. Frankly speaking this cements the power for the leaders as their subjects are happy (they have money, education, a world class healthcare system thanks to the visionary leaders). Imagine the effect it would have on the national population if all of a sudden expats were given nationality? Budgets would have to significantly increase, healthcare/education costs would shoot up. This would affect leaders positions politically as the level of service will decrease.

The Sultanate of Oman has offered a slightly different policy to other GCC nations, I believe the rules are if a expat has been resident there for over 25 years and can speak arabic (there are other additional rules here that need to be fulfilled), may naturalise. The country has also provided nationality to many expats who have contributed significantly to the development. This demonstrates fairness and vision of HM Sultan Qaboos.

What is the solution to the Dubai Police Chief's comments?

As in any other western country, seeking naturalisation in the GCC should involve adopting to the local culture. In the UK for example, a naturalisation applicant needs to show english proficiency and must sit a MCQ test on British history/culture. I think adopting something similar maybe a viable option.

Today, the global economy relies on a workforce that can move in and out of the country easily. The Conservative/Liberal Democrat government in the UK have similar problems with the number of immigrants coming to the country. They responded by having a proposal limiting the number of visas. This is NOT A viable option, simply because no MNC in the country will accept this and it is causing a storm. I can place a wager that this promise will not be filled by the current government in the UK simply because this is impossible to do in todays open global economy.


UAE & Oman rely on global trade (Think of the ports in the UAE, Salalah in Oman, HH Sheikh Mohammed's visionary airports in Dubai), it needs Indian IT professionals to come in and do their work, it needs foreign cleaners, it needs more foreign businessmen for trade in their freezones. Its this "openness" that contributes significantly to the growth of the GCC economies. Having a high expat population is a consequence to today's global economy. Closing yourself to the world will be disaster for the economies in the Gulf. Thankfully, the leaders are smart and recognise this.

My guess is that the GCC will provide naturalisation without the benefits that the local "indigenous" population receive such as subsidised healthcare/education etc at some point in the future.

PS. My message to expats is spare a thought for the locals and the leaders of the countries. My message to the "locals" is spare a thought for the expats and don't forget they are contributing to the growth of your great countries.

Thanks for Reading.

Added later:
The GCC should continue to build world class education infrastructure, provide the tools in order for their citizens (locals) to benefit and be able to play a productive part in their economies. Recently, there were complaints on quality (cheating allegations, bribes to professors in order for students to pass exams) of graduates produced at GCC universities. The government and the leadership need to pay attention to this area and ensure that QUALITY of graduates are improved.