Regional Update

Hi Folks!

The Editor has been busy monitoring the news, holidaying in various locations in the med.

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First Stop: KSA and the US relations.

This is a must read article on the US - Saudi split in relations.

Amid the Arab Spring, a U.S.-Saudi split

By Nawaf Obaid, Published: May 16

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA
A tectonic shift has occurred in the U.S.-Saudi relationship. Despite significant pressure from the Obama administration to remain on the sidelines, Saudi leaders sent troops into Manama in March to defend Bahrain’s monarchy and quell the unrest that has shaken that country since February. For more than 60 years, Saudi Arabia has been bound by an unwritten bargain: oil for security. Riyadh has often protested but ultimately acquiesced to what it saw as misguided U.S. policies. But American missteps in the region since Sept. 11, an ill-conceived response to the Arab protest movements and an unconscionable refusal to hold Israel accountable for its illegal settlement building have brought this arrangement to an end. As the Saudis recalibrate the partnership, Riyadh intends to pursue a much more assertive foreign policy, at times conflicting with American interests.
The backdrop for this change are the rise of Iranian meddling in the region and the counterproductive policies that the United States has pursued here since Sept. 11. The most significant blunder may have been the invasion of Iraq, which resulted in enormous loss of life and provided Iran an opening to expand its sphere of influence. For years, Iran’s leadership has aimed to foment discord while furthering its geopolitical ambitions. Tehran has long funded Hamas and Hezbollah; recently, its scope of attempted interference has broadened to include the affairs of Arab states from Yemen to Morocco. This month the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Hasan Firouzabadi, harshly criticized Riyadh over its intervention in Bahrain, claiming this act would spark massive domestic uprisings.
Such remarks are based more on wishful thinking than fact, but Iran’s efforts to destabilize its neighbors are tireless. As Riyadh fights a cold war with Tehran, Washington has shown itself in recent months to be an unwilling and unreliable partner against this threat. The emerging political reality is a Saudi-led Arab world facing off against the aggression of Iran and its non-state proxies.
Saudi Arabia will not allow the political unrest in the region to destabilize the Arab monarchies — the Gulf states, Jordan and Morocco. In Yemen, the Saudis are insisting on an orderly transition of power and a dignified exit for President Ali Abdullah Saleh (a courtesy that was not extended to Hosni Mubarak, despite the former Egyptian president’s many years as a strong U.S. ally). To facilitate this handover, Riyadh is leading a diplomatic effort under the auspices of the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council. In Iraq, the Saudi government will continue to pursue a hard-line stance against the Maliki government, which it regards as little more than an Iranian puppet. In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia will act to check the growth of Hezbollah and to ensure that this Iranian proxy does not dominate the country’s political life. Regarding the widespread upheaval in Syria, the Saudis will work to ensure that any potential transition to a post-Assad era is as peaceful and as free of Iranian meddling as possible.
Regarding Israel, Riyadh is adamant that a just settlement, based on King Abdullah’s proposed peace plan, be implemented. This includes a Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem. The United States has lost all credibility on this issue; after casting the sole vote in the U.N. Security Council against censuring Israel for its illegal settlement building, it can no longer act as an objective mediator. This act was a watershed in U.S.-Saudi relations, guaranteeing that Saudi leaders will not push for further compromise from the Palestinians, despite American pressure.
Saudi Arabia remains strong and stable, lending muscle to its invigorated foreign policy. Spiritually, the kingdom plays a unique role for the world’s 1.2 billion Muslims — more than 1 billion of whom are Sunni — as the birthplace of Islam and home of the two holiest cities. Politically, its leaders enjoy broad domestic support, and a growing nationalism has knitted the historically tribal country more closely together. This is largely why widespread protests, much anticipated by Western media in March, never materialized. As the world’s sole energy superpower and the de facto central banker of the global energy markets, Riyadh is the economic powerhouse of the Middle East, representing 25 percent of the combined gross domestic product of the Arab world. The kingdom has amassed more than $550 billion in foreign reserves and is spending more than $150 billion to improve infrastructure, public education, social services and health care.
To counter the threats posed by Iran and transnational terrorist networks, the Saudi leadership is authorizing more than $100 billion of additional military spending to modernize ground forces, upgrade naval capabilities and more. The kingdom is doubling its number of high-quality combat aircraft and adding 60,000 security personnel to the Interior Ministry forces. Plans are underway to create a “Special Forces Command,” based on the U.S. model, to unify the kingdom’s various special forces if needed for rapid deployment abroad.
Saudi Arabia has the will and the means to meet its expanded global responsibilities. In some issues, such as counterterrorism and efforts to fight money laundering, the Saudis will continue to be a strong U.S. partner. In areas in which Saudi national security or strategic interests are at stake, the kingdom will pursue its own agenda. With Iran working tirelessly to dominate the region, the Muslim Brotherhood rising in Egypt and unrest on nearly every border, there is simply too much at stake for the kingdom to rely on a security policy written in Washington, which has backfired more often than not and spread instability. The special relationship may never be the same, but from this transformation a more stable and secure Middle East can be born.
The writer is a senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research & Islamic Studies.

I don't think I need to comment further as the article has spelt out clearly the current status of US-KSA  relations.

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Next Stop: GCC Integration with Jordan and Morocco.

Readers have been emailing in asking why this has taken place? One word: Iran.

With a possible clash with Iran over meddling in the GCC, KSA has decided to strengthen its alliances by adding Jordan and Morocco.

The obvious meaning of this deal is that these countries will be automatically integrated with the GCC. GCC money will flow into both countries, thereby strengthening them economically. The lower cost labour will flow in and perhaps replace Asian labourers. This of course makes sense, as nations would rather have individuals who can easily integrate and have language and religious affinity (E.g. Poland integration into EU).

The real reason in our opinion is, in the event of a faceoff with Iran, shia Iraq will be allied with Iran and MAY attack or work with Iran to fight Sunni GCC.

During the Bahrain crisis, Muqtada Al Sadr had threatened to send shia tribesmen to the border with Kuwait and KSA to open a armed front in solidarity with so called peaceful protesters in Bahrain.  Therefore, to secure themselves Jordan and Morocco will be able to tie down Iraq and prevent Iraq from attacking Kuwait.

Yes this does sound like the nuclear scenario, where borders may be redrawn on religious lines. But GCC can't afford to take chances if Iran continues its behaviour of meddling in internal affairs of other countries.

This story further continues when we discuss Syria and Iran.

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Syria

Syria is facing a lot of protests. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) appears to be playing a small clandestine role against Bashar Al Assad. The KSA GID (General Intelligence Directorate) has established contacts with the MB via tribal networks. Saudi's are prepared to deal with sunni islamist MB to prevent any expansion to Iranian influence in the region and therefore corner Hezbollah in Lebanon.

There are rumours afloat that KSA is funding and arming various groups via Jordan to defeat the Assad regime . This rumour also suggests that Prince Bandar bin Sultan (Former KSA Ambasador to the US) is running this operation from Jordan. The rumour was given further credence as Syria had closed of the Jordanian border and lately Syia has accussed Saudi of supporting Syrian terror cells.

Jordan is a major front for most US intelligence operations and have worked together with the Saudi's  in Lebanon. So the accusation coming from Assad's government does make sense to this editor.

80% of the population in Syria is sunni. So a sunni Syria may also be a potent deterent against any potential moves of Iran and Iraq against Sunni GCC.

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Iran: Ahmadinejad - Khamanei spat

To justify Ahmadinejad's decision to sack the minister for intelligence Haidar Moslehi, in a meeting with Iranian supreme leader, Ahmadinejad complained of recent failures to take advantage of protests in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

In Kuwait, various iranian spy networks have been dismantled and diplomats expelled. The Ministry of Intelligence and Security was reduced to organising protests outside the KSA embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashaad.

These were the main reasons why Ahmadinejad and Khamanei had a fall out. Khamanei wanted to keep Moslehi due to upcoming elections and various other reasons.

This further confirms that Iran did attempt to capitalise on protests in Bahrain and KSA.

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Thats all for now folks. Feel free to post a comment or email us your views at eye.on.middleeast "At" Gmail "dot" com.

MENA Region - Quick Update

Editor has not been sleeping and is watching the current events unfold.

First Stop: Libya

Many are wondering what is going on in Libya. We'll make this simple.
The eastern side of Libya is currently held by "rebels". These rebels are essentially members of the armed forces of Libya and the people.

Do we see them winning? Nope. We do not. As long as Gaddafi continues to control the Airspace,
he may continue to bring in troops/Mercenaries from Niger, Chad, Syria etc. Yes that's right Syria is not a typo, Syria is showing solidarity with Libya and in the event of a full scale war, Syria will send their pilots to fly on behalf of the Libyan Air Force.

We believe that the western intelligence agencies are busy on the ground in Libya, trying to organise the rebel movement and of course evacuate their nationals. So far the french and british have delivered "aid" and weapons to the rebels.

Rebel soldiers teach civilians who have volunteered to join the rebel army at a school in Benghazi March 2, 2011. The rebel army is preparing to fight Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces if necessary, an official in the rebel army said.

Talks of no-fly zone are just that - talk, at the moment. Its something that is too difficult to impose as it would involve a US/western intervention and bombing spree. The current economic/political climate in the EU and the US does not allow for this - which is evidenced by Secretary of Defence Gates comments in the last few days.

No one appears to be covering the damage that the current crisis is going to cause the Spanish economy, which would feed into the EU economies. 

So in summary: We do not see an intervention by the West at this juncture. Rebels are slowly losing territory to Gaddafi's military evidenced by re-gaining Al Bayda today. Unless, the west enforces a no fly zone via Egypt etc anti-government forces will get over run.

We'd also like to point out that there is a heavy propaganda going on here by the west. Good quality information is particularly hard to receive at the moment.

Shades of Saddam here. By no means is this over yet - this war may continue for a while.


Next Stop: Bahrain

The process of national dialogue has begun by Crown Prince Sheikh Salman, the PM and Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad (HM King Hamad's son playing a limited role).

The opposition party Wefaq and Haq have met and are discussing their position on the issue. To date it appears they have agreed on certain issues and have had some disagreements. It is not clear what each's position is on asking for a constitutional monarchy.

The author commends the Crown Prince's call for dialogue. It is clear that others have copied this process/idea -> President Saleh (Yemen), Saif Al Gaddafi (Libya) are doing similar things.

The talk of the town was Bahraini King Sheikh Hamad visiting Riyadh to receive King Abdullah of KSA in Riyadh last week.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan (R) smiles with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa as they welcome the arrival of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, in Riyadh February 23, 2011.

King Abdullah got straight to business after landing. He had to deal with the Bahrain issue and also internal family issues that needed sorting out.

Regarding Bahrain, King Abdullah affirmed support to Bahrain and to the royal family. He told King Hamad that he supports the dialogue process initiated by the Crown Prince. They both agreed that using violence by the police or military is not the answer as it will eventually help Iran. King Abdullah also said that there are 3,000 Saudi troops stationed in the east that are on alert and are ready to help support the BDF (Bahrain Defence Force). Saudi officers are present already in Bahrain to help with any coordination, in the event of a crisis.

Oman

Protests have taken place in an industrial city of Sohar and troops have been deployed. We are monitoring this situation closely.

This is not an anti-monarchy protest. The people are in support of Sultan Qaboos, however they are not happy with the government ministers, whom they accuse of corruption. It is also about jobs for the unemployed and so on. We expect the protestors demands to be met to a certain extent and this will probably go away in a matter of days.

India and GCC

Prince Turki Al Faisal will be in New Delhi on the eve of the first Joint Indo-Saudi military exercises in India.

Omani troops are also expected to come to India for a massive Air, Sea and Land exercise in India this month.

Army Chief to visit US Centcom HQ

The India-US military relationship is set for a qualitative leap with the first ever visit of an Indian Army Chief to the headquarters of the US Central Command (Centcom), which has charge of Af-Pak, the Middle East and Iraq.

Gen. V K Singh will visit the Tampa, Florida-based Command in his 10-day trip to the US between March 6 and 15 with an aim to set up a Brigadier-level direct liaison with the Indian Army. India liaises only with the US Pacific Command, and having a liaison officer in Tampa will signal a recognition of Indian interests in the arc from the Gulf of Aden to the Straits of Malacca, government sources said.

The Centcom liaison and acquisition of M777 ultralight howitzers will figure in the bilateral Defence Policy Group meeting, for which a high-level delegation led by Defence Secretary Pradeep Kumar is going to Washington on March 1. Sources said Gen. Singh will meet Centcom Commander Gen. James Mattis on March 8 to discuss the situation in Af-Pak, the Arab world and Iraq. Gen. Singh will also hold talks with his US counterpart Gen. George W Casey Jr.

IndianExpress

Watch this space!
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Thanks for reading. Feel free to email us any questions at eye.on.middleeast "at" gmail "dot" com

Arab Unrest - Quick Update

 Egypt

Anyone who read my previous post about Washington's message to the Egyptian leadership would have been surprised at how things did turn out.

Our prediction is that the military may not hold elections in 6 months time, contrary to what the junta are saying in Public. The military prefers to maintain control of the economy as it remains heavily invested. Initial reports appear that arrests of the previous ministers who were pro-economic liberalization have taken place. There appears to be a socialist slant towards comments being made by the military leaders.

The Egyptian military wants to protect its interests and therefore we believe that it is unlikely that the junta will go after Mubarak's money as this may show the level of involvement of the Egyptian military as well as several high profile individuals from around the world (including Israeli's).

We also think that if there is democracy to be established, there would be 2 possible models:

Turkish: Islamists and liberals allied with a strong military. This is what the people of Egypt desire.

Moroccan/Pakistani:  Free parliament, elections, but ultimate control of security issues is directly with King/Kayani/Egyptian Army.

The decision on direction may take a long time to play out (possibly greater than 6 months). Its clear to us that the military do not want to see a Turkish situation where the senior generals have been placed under arrest for attempts at coup. Therefore, the Egyptian military is interested in protecting its political power and obtain immunity from any arrests, but retain the power to intervene politically when it feels the need to do so (much like Pakistan).

Bahrain

Well many would have seen the protests that are currently taking place in Bahrain.

 I think that the Bahrain situation is being fanned by the western media. There is a lot of anti-government propaganda by  well respected journalists such as Nick Kristof from the NY Times. There are currently petitions being circulated against this journalist.

We at Eye on the Middle East believe that the Bahrain monarchy WILL NOT FALL! This is based largely on comments made by the mainstream opposition (Al Wefaq and others) parties. There are some calls to remove the Al Khalifa dynasty but this is not widely echoed by protestors, in fact, most anti government protestors just want economic reform more than the political reform.

The Crown Prince has appeared on CNN earlier today, which is a great idea to explain to the world at large the views of the government of Bahrain. See Link 

Why were the BDF (Bahrain Defense Force) deployed?  From what we see, the BDF was deployed to protect national infrastructure such as oil infrastructure and parts of the city as a show of force. We have heard that the Saudi's had asked Bahrain if they require any extra forces, however HM King Hamad had decided not to use force against the protestors.

The BDF were deployed because the Bahrain NSA had most likely received intelligence that Iranian backed movements had decided now is their time to launch their civil disobedience movement which would want to damage infrastructure.

For many years, the Bahraini security services have watched individuals travel to Qom (Iran) for religious training and then onwards for training with IRGC & Ministry of Intelligence Service on basic intelligence gathering skills, Civil disobedience movements and arms training. We have learned via sources that the Iran backed elements were split into 2 groups, people that wanted to act now and others who preferred to use these tactics only in the event of a major conflict with Iran.

Lets not confuse these Iran backed elements with normal protestors who were out there to ask for political and economic reforms. The vast majority of protestors want this, but sadly the trouble makers attempted to take advantage of the situation.

Another major reason to deploy the BDF was to prevent any clashes breaking out between pro and anti government protestors. The seriousness of the incidents could have sparked a civil war in Bahrain. Thankfully, none of this happened.


There have been more trade union strikes that have been called for Sunday 19th and Monday 20th February.

It does appear many opposition parties have agreed to dialogue with HH Crown Prince Salman earlier today and the removal of the BDF from the streets of Manama was seen as a positive step. The Crown Prince has attempted to defuse the situation and hinted at an economic package being delivered to all Bahraini citizens. So, the editor believes that this situation will be resolved relatively soon.

Libya

Meanwhile, early reports suggest Libya will be the next domino to fall. Reports are streaming through mainstream media that the Eastern part of Libya (Bengazi in particular) is now completely under the control of the people! It does appear that many have lost their lives.

Oman

Sultan Qaboos has cancelled his month long visit to India due to the prevailing situation in the Middle East.

It is important to note that Indian and Omani forces are due to conduct a major military exercise next month.