Quick Update: Libya, Syria + GCC

Hi Folks!

Here is a short update on Libya as well as the GCC.

British Royal Air Force (RAF) Typhoon aircraft taxi at Gioia Dell Colle Air Base, in Italy March 22, 2011

Libya

• We expect to see more coalition strikes on Gaddafi's armed forces. In particular we expect Libyan tanks and other artillery equipment to be destroyed over the next few days.
• If a settlement is to be agreed, we expect the country to be split into 2 - Tripolitania and Cyrenica. Where Gaddafi will retain control of the West (Tripolitania) with the rebels holding the East (Cyrenica).
• The person running the rebellion is Gaddafi's former interior minister Younis Al Obaidi, who is backed by a few military officers.
• One of the officers backing Obaidi is supposedly close to the US pentagon. As the WSJ had reported the Libyan National Council can rely on arms supplies coming from over the border in Egypt that is indeed partly financed by the KSA.
• Obaidi's aim is to recapture Adjdabia from the Gaddafi forces, since the western coalition air force is taking out any Gaddafi forces on the main highways. Once this is complete, we believe he will head for the coastal oil transportation hubs - especially Ras Lanouf ( a site of a major oil export terminal). 
• Capture of these oil export terminals would mean oil revenues and hence greater viability of the state of Cyrenica. Establishing a state of Cyrenaica is the minimum the rebels aim to achieve at the moment.
• A problem Obaidi is facing is that the force is filled with enthusiastic civilians who have very little military training. 
• Meanwhile Gaddafi is aiming to grab Zintan and Misrata as well as other Western towns. These cities would be important to be able to stabilise the Tripolitania region.
• We expect additional political appointments to be made over the coming week - we strongly expect Ali Issawi (the former Ambassador to India) to be given a very senior posting - either in Foreign Affairs or Economy.
• We believe most western capitals are now debating on the end game in Libya - as in what the west hopes to achieve in Libya. Also at what point do they cease military operations.

GCC

Soldiers from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) forces guard the entrance to the Pearl Square from their armoured vehicles in Manama, March 19, 2011.

Gulf states 'to deport Hezbollah, Iranian agents'

(AFP) – 16 hours ago

KUWAIT CITY — Arab states in the Gulf plan to deport thousands of Lebanese Shiites over their alleged links to Hezbollah and Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard force, a Kuwaiti newspaper reported on Thursday.
Al-Seyassah, quoting London-based Arab diplomatic sources, said the measure was being considered because of intelligence reports that Lebanese Shiites activists had been involved in protests in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
Based on the assessments by the United States, France and Bahrain, alleged Hezbollah and Revolutionary Guard agents were leading the protests along with local Shiite clerics in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province, it said.
It said Bahrain's decision to suspend flights to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon and its condemnation of remarks by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had "paved the way for the deportation of thousands of Lebanese Shiites from the Gulf."
"No Lebanese Shiite linked to or suspected of being associated with Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards will remain in the Gulf," the diplomatic sources said, citing high-ranking Bahraini officials.
Bahrain is preparing to deport 90 Lebanese Shiites, most of them arrested during the Shiite-led, pro-democracy in the kingdom, and is examining the status of 4,000 Lebanese families living in the Gulf kingdom, the sources said.
Last week, Bahraini authorities carried out a bloody crackdown on the protesters who have been demanding political reforms since February 14 in the tiny Shiite-majority, Sunni-ruled kingdom.
The crackdown came hours after a Saudi-led joint Gulf force rolled into Bahrain to back up the regime, a move condemned by Shiite Iran and the head of Lebanon's Shiite militant Hezbollah who has offered to help the demonstrators.
On top of the suspension of flights to Beirut by its two national carriers, Manama has advised Bahraini citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon, a popular destination for wealthy Gulf Arabs.
"Due to threats and interference by terrorists," the Bahraini foreign ministry said on Tuesday it "warns and advises its citizens not to travel to the Republic of Lebanon as they might face dangers threatening their safety."

Bahrain and KSA have pointed the finger at Iran for the unrests that have taken place over the last few weeks. This is evident by HM King Hamad's speeches of an external hand in the protests and also by the expulsion of diplomats between Iran and Bahrian.

The expulsion of Lebanese nationals appears solely directed at Iran and Iranian interests. The MOIS (Iranian Ministry of Intelligence Servies) and IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps) are known to use Lebanese nationals for their operations in the GCC. This article suggests that several individuals appear to have been caught taking part in protests.

The expulsions of Lebanese individuals linked to the Hezbollah will serve to heighten the tensions between Iran and also to protect the KSA and Bahrain from any potential Iranian involvement in any unrest or future protests.

 Due to the large Lebanese community in Bahrain, any expulsion may also serve as a sanctioning of the Hezbollah led Lebanese government. We see this similar to the sanctioning of the Hamas government in Gaza by the EU after winning the democratic led elections. However for this to be truly effective, it would require a GCC wide expulsion of Lebanese individuals - the article above does suggest that there may be a GCC wide expulsion and we agree that a GCC wide expulsion may take place. There have been reports in late 2010 of expulsion of Hezbollah supporters from the UAE, so this would not be the first time that a Gulf state has taken action against lebanese expatriates in the Gulf.

Iran has making its own moves recently, by allowing Iraqi shi'ite political parties to form an alliance against the "KSA intervention" in Bahrain. This alliance has threatened to open a front (by sending shia tribes to the border) in the KSA/Iraq border in solidarity with the Bahraini shia.

Syria

In light of the major protests in Syria. This has caused serious worries of instability in neighbouring Iraq - across all parts of the country. Therefore, the Kurdistan Regional Government and the central government in Baghdad have struck an agreement to provide for security of all northern iraqi oil fields.

It appears that there is a heightened risk of serious instability all over Iraq as a result of a protests in Syria. We expect tightening of the border security between Syria and Iraq over the next few days in order to prevent any instability spreading into Iraq.

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Thank you for reading. Feel free to email us any questions you have to eye.on.middleeast "at" gmail "dot" com.

Libya No Fly Zone - The Plan Plus Update on Bahrain

Libya

Our readers will know that Middle East Analysis has been fairly accurate so far on the Libyan situation. We accurately predicted that Gaddafi would use his Air force decisively to win this war with the rebels unless a No Fly Zone was implemented.

The French military have been busy planning strikes in Libya as part of the No Fly Zone implementation.


Gaddafi's air assets - He has Mig 21's, Mig 23s,a number of Sukhoi 22's and Galib trainer aircraft armed with Air to Surface rockets that have been in use in current operations. All in all, Gaddafi has only 20 air planes that are in working conditions. Out of the 4 Mirages that he had, 2 were flown to Malta as pilots defected.
 

Libyan Air Force Chinooks

In addition to this, Gaddafi has a decent sized helicopter fleet, which are estimated to be around 40. These compromise Chinooks (which incidentally played a signifcant and decisive role in the recent offensive on rebel held cities) that were recently upgraded in Italy as well as a number of Russian attack helicopters. Many of the pilots appear to be from the Syrian Air Force (sent by Bashaar Al Assad as part of a long standing pact that is in place between the 2 countries).

The Plan - Our sources confirm to us that the plan is for Western air forces to destroy Gaddafi's Air Force fleet in the initial strikes. This is due to the importance of the aircraft in striking rebel positions in the last week. This would be key to establishing the no fly zone. The US generals early on had hinted that a No Fly Zone would also mean taking out Libyan Surface to Air Missile sites - this maybe a difficult part of establishing the No Fly Zone but is very much possible.

A French Rafale M combat aircraft performs a catapult assisted launch from the flight deck of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65).

We speculate that UK would utilise bases in Cyprus and Sicily. The US appears to be interested in using Egyptian air bases to launch their raids. While the French will probably decide to deploy from the South of France which isn't too far from the Libyan cities.

News reports also sight 2 British Nimrod aircraft that were due to be scrapped this month have been pressed into service.

A crucial test for the coalition force would be to control and coordinate this operation as they have done in the past.

Future issues - Another worry in Washington is that Gaddafi has recruited mercenaries from tribes in Mali that are close to the AQIM area of operations. So the questions being asked is, what will happen once these tribal mercenaries return to their home in Mali with their weapons? Will they swell the AQIM (Al Qaeda in the Maghreb) ranks? As a result, there is a worry that the enitre North Africa may become destabilised. Washington has begun to meet closely with Algerian counter terror advisors, to consult and cooperate on these issues.

Bahrain - Muqtada Al Sadr and some shia groups are debating opening a front against the KSA or Kuwait in solidarity with Bahraini Shia.

These moves are under the assumption that the Saudi led Peninsula Shield Forces are there to put down any unrest. We strongly deny that the Saudi forces are there to deal with the protesters or conduct any sort of riot control.

The KSA led PSF force is there for 2 reasons:
1) Assurance to the Bahraini King, that the KSA will intervene only if the King feels there is a threat to his rule/monarchy.
2) Prevention of any Iranian adventurism.

In fact, the Crown Prince had spoken to the opposition members to explain to them the reasons for the GCC forces deployment. This shows to us that the GCC troops are not there to deal specifically with the internal security issues. The BDF along with the other Ministry of Interior Forces as well as the Bahrain National Guard appear more than capable to deal with any serious unrest.

We expect dialogue to continue, one way or another, as a civil war will create more long term problems, which may end up being a bigger threat to the ruling powers and play into the hands of Iran. This has also been the common view amongst the rulers.

There have been reports of arrested members of the opposition circulating the news and the blogosphere. We see this as an attempt to force the opposition back to the table and solve their problems with dialogue. It remains to be seen if the plans will work.

Thanks for Reading! As always please continue emailing us at eye.on.middleeast "at" gmail "dot" com.

MENA Region - Quick Update

Editor has not been sleeping and is watching the current events unfold.

First Stop: Libya

Many are wondering what is going on in Libya. We'll make this simple.
The eastern side of Libya is currently held by "rebels". These rebels are essentially members of the armed forces of Libya and the people.

Do we see them winning? Nope. We do not. As long as Gaddafi continues to control the Airspace,
he may continue to bring in troops/Mercenaries from Niger, Chad, Syria etc. Yes that's right Syria is not a typo, Syria is showing solidarity with Libya and in the event of a full scale war, Syria will send their pilots to fly on behalf of the Libyan Air Force.

We believe that the western intelligence agencies are busy on the ground in Libya, trying to organise the rebel movement and of course evacuate their nationals. So far the french and british have delivered "aid" and weapons to the rebels.

Rebel soldiers teach civilians who have volunteered to join the rebel army at a school in Benghazi March 2, 2011. The rebel army is preparing to fight Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's forces if necessary, an official in the rebel army said.

Talks of no-fly zone are just that - talk, at the moment. Its something that is too difficult to impose as it would involve a US/western intervention and bombing spree. The current economic/political climate in the EU and the US does not allow for this - which is evidenced by Secretary of Defence Gates comments in the last few days.

No one appears to be covering the damage that the current crisis is going to cause the Spanish economy, which would feed into the EU economies. 

So in summary: We do not see an intervention by the West at this juncture. Rebels are slowly losing territory to Gaddafi's military evidenced by re-gaining Al Bayda today. Unless, the west enforces a no fly zone via Egypt etc anti-government forces will get over run.

We'd also like to point out that there is a heavy propaganda going on here by the west. Good quality information is particularly hard to receive at the moment.

Shades of Saddam here. By no means is this over yet - this war may continue for a while.


Next Stop: Bahrain

The process of national dialogue has begun by Crown Prince Sheikh Salman, the PM and Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad (HM King Hamad's son playing a limited role).

The opposition party Wefaq and Haq have met and are discussing their position on the issue. To date it appears they have agreed on certain issues and have had some disagreements. It is not clear what each's position is on asking for a constitutional monarchy.

The author commends the Crown Prince's call for dialogue. It is clear that others have copied this process/idea -> President Saleh (Yemen), Saif Al Gaddafi (Libya) are doing similar things.

The talk of the town was Bahraini King Sheikh Hamad visiting Riyadh to receive King Abdullah of KSA in Riyadh last week.

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan (R) smiles with Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa as they welcome the arrival of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, in Riyadh February 23, 2011.

King Abdullah got straight to business after landing. He had to deal with the Bahrain issue and also internal family issues that needed sorting out.

Regarding Bahrain, King Abdullah affirmed support to Bahrain and to the royal family. He told King Hamad that he supports the dialogue process initiated by the Crown Prince. They both agreed that using violence by the police or military is not the answer as it will eventually help Iran. King Abdullah also said that there are 3,000 Saudi troops stationed in the east that are on alert and are ready to help support the BDF (Bahrain Defence Force). Saudi officers are present already in Bahrain to help with any coordination, in the event of a crisis.

Oman

Protests have taken place in an industrial city of Sohar and troops have been deployed. We are monitoring this situation closely.

This is not an anti-monarchy protest. The people are in support of Sultan Qaboos, however they are not happy with the government ministers, whom they accuse of corruption. It is also about jobs for the unemployed and so on. We expect the protestors demands to be met to a certain extent and this will probably go away in a matter of days.

India and GCC

Prince Turki Al Faisal will be in New Delhi on the eve of the first Joint Indo-Saudi military exercises in India.

Omani troops are also expected to come to India for a massive Air, Sea and Land exercise in India this month.

Army Chief to visit US Centcom HQ

The India-US military relationship is set for a qualitative leap with the first ever visit of an Indian Army Chief to the headquarters of the US Central Command (Centcom), which has charge of Af-Pak, the Middle East and Iraq.

Gen. V K Singh will visit the Tampa, Florida-based Command in his 10-day trip to the US between March 6 and 15 with an aim to set up a Brigadier-level direct liaison with the Indian Army. India liaises only with the US Pacific Command, and having a liaison officer in Tampa will signal a recognition of Indian interests in the arc from the Gulf of Aden to the Straits of Malacca, government sources said.

The Centcom liaison and acquisition of M777 ultralight howitzers will figure in the bilateral Defence Policy Group meeting, for which a high-level delegation led by Defence Secretary Pradeep Kumar is going to Washington on March 1. Sources said Gen. Singh will meet Centcom Commander Gen. James Mattis on March 8 to discuss the situation in Af-Pak, the Arab world and Iraq. Gen. Singh will also hold talks with his US counterpart Gen. George W Casey Jr.

IndianExpress

Watch this space!
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Arab Unrest - Quick Update

 Egypt

Anyone who read my previous post about Washington's message to the Egyptian leadership would have been surprised at how things did turn out.

Our prediction is that the military may not hold elections in 6 months time, contrary to what the junta are saying in Public. The military prefers to maintain control of the economy as it remains heavily invested. Initial reports appear that arrests of the previous ministers who were pro-economic liberalization have taken place. There appears to be a socialist slant towards comments being made by the military leaders.

The Egyptian military wants to protect its interests and therefore we believe that it is unlikely that the junta will go after Mubarak's money as this may show the level of involvement of the Egyptian military as well as several high profile individuals from around the world (including Israeli's).

We also think that if there is democracy to be established, there would be 2 possible models:

Turkish: Islamists and liberals allied with a strong military. This is what the people of Egypt desire.

Moroccan/Pakistani:  Free parliament, elections, but ultimate control of security issues is directly with King/Kayani/Egyptian Army.

The decision on direction may take a long time to play out (possibly greater than 6 months). Its clear to us that the military do not want to see a Turkish situation where the senior generals have been placed under arrest for attempts at coup. Therefore, the Egyptian military is interested in protecting its political power and obtain immunity from any arrests, but retain the power to intervene politically when it feels the need to do so (much like Pakistan).

Bahrain

Well many would have seen the protests that are currently taking place in Bahrain.

 I think that the Bahrain situation is being fanned by the western media. There is a lot of anti-government propaganda by  well respected journalists such as Nick Kristof from the NY Times. There are currently petitions being circulated against this journalist.

We at Eye on the Middle East believe that the Bahrain monarchy WILL NOT FALL! This is based largely on comments made by the mainstream opposition (Al Wefaq and others) parties. There are some calls to remove the Al Khalifa dynasty but this is not widely echoed by protestors, in fact, most anti government protestors just want economic reform more than the political reform.

The Crown Prince has appeared on CNN earlier today, which is a great idea to explain to the world at large the views of the government of Bahrain. See Link 

Why were the BDF (Bahrain Defense Force) deployed?  From what we see, the BDF was deployed to protect national infrastructure such as oil infrastructure and parts of the city as a show of force. We have heard that the Saudi's had asked Bahrain if they require any extra forces, however HM King Hamad had decided not to use force against the protestors.

The BDF were deployed because the Bahrain NSA had most likely received intelligence that Iranian backed movements had decided now is their time to launch their civil disobedience movement which would want to damage infrastructure.

For many years, the Bahraini security services have watched individuals travel to Qom (Iran) for religious training and then onwards for training with IRGC & Ministry of Intelligence Service on basic intelligence gathering skills, Civil disobedience movements and arms training. We have learned via sources that the Iran backed elements were split into 2 groups, people that wanted to act now and others who preferred to use these tactics only in the event of a major conflict with Iran.

Lets not confuse these Iran backed elements with normal protestors who were out there to ask for political and economic reforms. The vast majority of protestors want this, but sadly the trouble makers attempted to take advantage of the situation.

Another major reason to deploy the BDF was to prevent any clashes breaking out between pro and anti government protestors. The seriousness of the incidents could have sparked a civil war in Bahrain. Thankfully, none of this happened.


There have been more trade union strikes that have been called for Sunday 19th and Monday 20th February.

It does appear many opposition parties have agreed to dialogue with HH Crown Prince Salman earlier today and the removal of the BDF from the streets of Manama was seen as a positive step. The Crown Prince has attempted to defuse the situation and hinted at an economic package being delivered to all Bahraini citizens. So, the editor believes that this situation will be resolved relatively soon.

Libya

Meanwhile, early reports suggest Libya will be the next domino to fall. Reports are streaming through mainstream media that the Eastern part of Libya (Bengazi in particular) is now completely under the control of the people! It does appear that many have lost their lives.

Oman

Sultan Qaboos has cancelled his month long visit to India due to the prevailing situation in the Middle East.

It is important to note that Indian and Omani forces are due to conduct a major military exercise next month.

Egypt plus Oman - UAE Spy Issue - Update

This will be a quick update:

The editor has been watching the Egyptian events unfold. Yesterday, Egyptian President has agreed not to stand for re-election and neither will his son Gamal Mubarak be allowed to do so. Similar statement also came out from Yemen's president.

From what we are told Ambassador Frank Wisner travelled to Cairo and met with Mohammed El Baradei first. After this meeting, he has met senior Egyptian officials to convey messages from the White House. The white house wanted Mubarak to step down immediately and allow the Army to control Egypt during the transition period until elections in 2011. We believe that this is so that the US and Israel are given enough time to decide the best course of action. Israel was infact, against the decision to ask Mubarak to step down, they see Mubarak as a guarantor to the 1979 Camp David accord. US and Israel must be increasingly interested in seeing Omar Suleiman stay on. 

We feel that it was unlikely that Mubarak would have wanted to stay on as President anyway, in light of his health condition. Mubarak wanted to pass on the presidency to his son Gamal in the previous elections. 

Iran's position

The editor does not doubt that Iran will attempt to increase its influence in Egypt. Iran must already be making plans for action such as approaching members of parliament who are considered to be pro-Iranian. Iran will try its best to expand influence and perhaps fund election expenses for pro-Iranian members (or parties) to be elected into Parliament. This would naturally draw GCC into this quest for influence over Egypt. We expect to see a similar situation to Lebanon where the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia spent a huge amount of money (rumours state that these are around a $1billion) on helping Saad Harriri become re-elected. As it stands, Israel appears to be the most worried of the situation, and as much as the GCC, it may be Israel that will step in to help a pro-Israeli party to be elected.

Saudi Arabia was not shy to protect its interests in the current Egyptian unrest. Reports have been received that King Abdullah had set up a team comprising of Security and Military officials to keep an eye on the situation in Egypt. If the situation was to further deteriorate, it would have seen KSA send in troops to take any US made equipment. The editor feels that this is to protect KSA from having these weapons be used against them.

The Future

We at the blog see it as imperative for US and Israel to continue to back Omar Suleiman, who is seen as a man that Israel and the West can do business with. Omar Suleiman handles numerous complicated issues on behalf of the Mubarak regime - especially the Palestine file. Naturally this see's Omar Suleiman making regular trips to Tel Aviv. 

Oman and UAE Spy Issue

Oman uncovers 'spy network but UAE denies any link

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12320859

The authorities in Oman say they have uncovered a network of spies working for the United Arab Emirates, according to the state news agency.
The alleged agents for the UAE are said to have spied on the Omani government and military.
The UAE government denies any knowledge of - or link with - such a network, according to its news agency.
The neighbouring countries are members of the Gulf Co-operation Council and normally enjoy good relations.
Government sources in Oman say the ring was discovered some months ago and that a number of Omani nationals have been arrested.
The spies may have been interested in the issue of the succession of Oman's Sultan Qaboos, according to a security official quoted by the Agence France-Presse news agency.
The sultan is 70 years old and does not have children.
But others suggested the alleged spy ring could be more related to regional politics.
"One possibility is that the UAE wants to know more about Iran-Oman relations because of Tehran and Muscat's long ties in security and military co-operation," Theodore Karasik, from the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, told Reuters news agency.
Oman has close relations with Iran, partly because the two countries are joint gatekeepers of the Strait of Hormuz, the route for 40% of the world's oil tanker traffic.
But the sultanate also has strong military and diplomatic ties with the West.
The UAE is a staunch ally of the United States.
UAE authorities received the news with "shock and surprise" according to the Wam news agency.
"The UAE expresses its full willingness to co-operate with... Oman in any investigations that it carries out in full transparency to uncover (those) who try to mar relations between the two countries," said a foreign ministry statement.

Editor can reveal that the spies arrested were working for the UAE State Security services under the control of Hazza Bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The target appears to be senior members of the government, specifically members who appeared to be too close to Iran. The members infiltrated the Cabinet, military and the ISS (Internal Security Service). Rumours circulating appear to place the number of people arrested at 15. 

Abu Dhabi and Omani intelligence officials have met several times since the arrests in order to discuss the issue, but talks appear to have broken down. Hence the release using the official Oman News Agency. 

HM Sultan Qaboos had refused to travel to the GCC Summit held in Abu Dhabi, this was indeed due to learning of the arrests of the spies. 

It is no secret that several members of the cabinet including the Foreign minister are favouring increasing political, economic and military ties with Iran. This may have been the reason why the Emirati's had decided to increase intelligence gathering in Oman.

The retaliation from the UAE have included sending back several senior Omani army officers serving in Emirati ranks (as is common in the GCC military's). Oman suspects that several of these officers will continue to stay in touch with Emirati intelligence.

Thanks for reading.

Sorry Folks!

Apologies folks! Its been a while.... Don't worry, the editor is not sleeping and is working on numerous projects!

Next post will be the GCC - PAK relationship!

Watch this space!

Iran and the Nuclear Issue

Iran has been dominating the news over the last few years, mainly due to its development of a Nuclear Program.
Lets assess the issue at large, interests of each country in the region and world at large.

Iran's Nuclear Program 

Iran's nuclear program appears to be the most pressing issue for the GCC and the west.

What does Iran stand to gain by going nuclear?

It is the same reason why India and others went nuclear. In the words of Former Indian President Abdul Kalam, nuclear weapons are a "weapon of peace". First and foremost for Iran, it is to deter aggressors/bullying and protect the country from the US. Having a nuclear weapon, can deter a major war and essentially cements Irans position as a regional and international player in politics.
Secondly, I believe it allows Iran to flex its muscles regionally. Consequently this is the biggest worry for those in the GCC.

The Iranians continue to agree to talk, just in order to stall for time and keep the clock ticking so that Iranian nuclear scientists can continue to work. It’s just a question of time for the Iranians to come out and say they have a bomb ready for testing.

Will the Iranians actually use it?

You may have heard in the press of Ahmadinejad telling people that Israel will be wiped off the map etc. The west is using this as a tool to scare ordinary people and obtain support for their governments actions on stopping the Iranian nuclear program.

No nation is crazy enough to use it as it will likely be met with an equi-proportionate nuclear response, especially if the target nation has a triad of nuclear missiles (Missiles/Bombs deliverable via Land systems, Airplanes and using Submarines).

Iran and perhaps the nuclear powers too, believe in MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). This is where both sides have enough nuclear missiles to cause serious damage to each other.

So its safe to say that Iran isn't actually getting a nuclear weapon in order to use it, its more of a deterrent and use as a support to foreign policy objectives. However, as the USSR showed us, possessing a nuclear weapon does not guarantee the regime power to rule for an infinite period. Regime change is still very much possible and will continue to be a major threat in my opinion.

Factors to keep in mind:
- It takes more than one test to perfect the weapon (The West have conducted 100's of tests to perfect theirs)
- Even once you have a weapon, you need a credible delivery vehicle that can reach your intended enemy. This can take many years.

Anyone interested in understanding why India went nuclear and how it outsmarted the US in going nuclear, please read Weapons of Peace: The Secret Story of India's quest to become a Nuclear Power by Raj Chengappa.

The US

The views of the senior leadership in Iran is that the US cannot afford another major war. The US has announced timelines to pull out of Iraq and any increase in violence in Iraq will probably slow this process. Iran can obviously make it difficult for the US to pull out. An attack on Iran will in all likeliness cause an upsurge in violence in Iraq by Al Qods forces (Iranian special forces troops controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps). and Iranian controlled militia - specifically the Mahdi army (Officially disbanded but highly active in the South of Iraq) who have been undergoing training with the Hezbollah/IRGC in Iran.

Of course this is also a similar situation in Afghanistan, where certain part of the Taliban are backed by Iran. Evidence of Iranian made shells, weapons etc have showed up in Afghanistan[1]. Members of the Taliban still receive training in Iranian bases close to the border with Afghanistan.

Now the biggest reason why the US can't afford another war is because of its economy. Recent data published by the US Department of Labor of high unemployment (9.8%[2]) Some people go as far as to say that the unofficial US unemployment rate taking into consideration those that have not claimed unemployment benefits is around 1 in 5 people. The economic situation is not improving very much either, this can be witnessed by recent remarks of Ben Bernanke and further stimulus plans.

Imagine if the US was to go to war with Iran, would ordinary people in the street in the West be happy with this? Probably not. Public opinion would frown at such an idea, and will not be happy with a significant portion of their budgets/taxes being spent on "another war!”. Tehran also appears to agree with the idea that US cannot afford another war[3]. In my opinion this is also the same reason why Israel is being held back from attacking Iran, simply because Israel would not be doing itself any favours with the West (support that it needs for its very survival).

The GCC

The GCC is the one that is most worried about the Iranian threat. One can witness the statements from the recent wikileaks saga:  HM King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia repeatedly exhorted the United States to "cut off the head of the snake" by launching military strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program.

HM King Hamad of Bahrain argued "forcefully for taking action to terminate  Iran's nuclear program, by whatever means necessary". "That program must be stopped," he was quoted as saying. "The danger of letting it go on is greater than the danger of stopping".

An Iranian nuclear weapon will provide a lot of power on foreign policy. Each nation in the GCC approaches the issue of Iran differently:

KSA

A crux of the issue for the Saudi's appears to be that Iran is a challenge for their regional power and a leader of Islam.

There are also worries that Iran will be able to meddle in the internal affairs of the Kingdom, especially amongst the significant Shia population in the East of the Kingdom (the majority of saudi oil is located in this region). Worst comes to worst Iran could back a succession movement in the East of the Kingdom.

Bahrain

 Similar to the Saudi's, there is a significant Shi'ite population in the island nation. Bahrain has a long history with Iranian meddling in Internal affairs of Bahrain. The majority of the population in Bahrain is Shi'ite and the rulers are Sunni. I'll go into Iranian activities in the GCC as a whole in another post.

Qatar

Main issue for Qatar is believe it or not NATURAL GAS! Both Iran and Qatar share the worlds largest natural gas fields. They are competitors, in this way and are trying to extract as much gas as possible. As the sea borders are not actually demarcated by either Iran or Qatar, this can be a source of conflict. Iran has displayed aggression here by routinely sending IRGC personnel in boats to damage Qatari Gas infrastructure[4].

UAE

Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb and Abu Mussa Islands that are claimed by the UAE but currently under occupation of Iran.

The GCC

I have left out Kuwait, Oman and Qatar on purpose as most of the issues are covered above. Iran has made threats of attacking GCC nations in the event of any US/Israeli strike coming from their territory. Iranians have also made it clear that they have covert cells in the GCC, in the event of war, will be activated to damage infrastructure (electricity, roads, etc), conduct suicide attacks.

Is this threat for real? Bahrain has faced these threats from the 80s and have dismantled many cells since. Even to this day, building construction work in Manama usually ends up finding buried cache's of professionally packed weapons[5].

Trained in Iran or in Hezbollah camps in the Oronte valley in Lebanon, the elements aim to launch sabotage operations against American and European interests in the event of an attack against Iran. In the event of a war, Iran will use these sleeper cells to launch a civil disobedience movement and send people to the US embassy and to the HQ of the 5th fleet in Manama⁵.

The Saudi decision to set up a force to protect oil facilities came because of the discovery of Iranian infiltrated operatives in the East of the Kingdom.

So in short, Yes the Iranian threat is very real.

Conclusion

Will there be war?

Mmm.... Not sure. At this point in time, the US can't afford a war and neither will the US let anyone else launch any attacks against Iran. But Israel and the West will probably continue to use other methods to slow Iran down - Stuxnet and other covert means.

Does Iran want war?

Despite all the loud noises from Iranian generals of how they will strike their enemies, the Iranians do not want war. Iranians know that they will come out worse in any major war with the US. Iranians are happy to make gutsy moves, like the recent visit to the Lebanon - Israel border by Ahmadinejad, use IRGC boats to intimidate US Navy ships in the Straits of Hormuz. But in my opinion Iran will not do anything major to provoke the US.
In short, neither US or Iran wants a war! Neither will provoke the other in any big way.

What will happen if Iran does nuclearise?

The GCC will make peace with Iran and satisfy their needs. Game theory tells us that the GCC will probably nuclearise (How? Thats a different matter altogether). We have also seen this in the past between India and Pakistan. India was first to nuclearise and Pakistan responded with attaining nuclear weapons[6].
The cheapest option is probably to strike an agreement with one of the nuclear powers - Probably India, Pakistan and the US as the most reliable partners out of the nuclear nations to provide an umbrella. However, will these nations risk getting involved in nuclear war? You decide.
There are a lot of side issues related here that I could not talk about due to time constraints. I hope this has provided readers with a useful basic understanding on what is happening, what the world leaders are thinking about Iran and what we can expect to see in the future.

Thank you for reading.

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[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/20/AR2007092001236.html Arms Seized in Afghanistan Sent From Iran, NATO Says

[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11913196 The US unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in November, the highest rate since April

[3] http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-30081720071020 US in no position for war says Iran minister.

[4] Gulf States Newsletter 845

[5] Gulf States Newsletter 888

[6] http://www.defencejournal.com/2000/june/chagai.htm When Mountains Move, the story of Chagai.