Hezbollah, Israel, Iran and the LIon - Regional Update - April 4th

Firstly, We at the Middle East Analysis would like to apologise for our long delay in posting information. This update will obviously slightly longer than usual to explain the complete scenario.

Summary of Regional Situation:

- GCC conveys message to Russia that either way the revolution will win either via a coup or a war of attrition
- Syrian intelligence has  increased support to the PKK, in response to Turkish logistical support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
- Israel is on red alert based on intelligence inputs of Hezbollah preparing to launch a diversionary strike against Israel to get the Syrian people to divert their attention to Israel and also to any possible retaliation for an attack on Iran
- GCC on red alert in expectation of an Israeli strike which they believe can take place from any time now.
- Turkish government preparing for intervention in Syria - its a case of when, not if.
- Libyan veterans bought in by Qatar to join the ranks of the FSA

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Contrary to news reports weapons have been reaching FSA and will do so in a faster way given that the US has decided to supply communication sets (that was previously being intercepted by Syrian intelligence).

Jordan and GCC intelligence mixed with western intelligence are running their intel/logistical/financial support from Iraqi sunni tribal areas.

PRC even though vetoed the UN resolution, they dont think Assad can survive. Damascus was the first major middle East Hub for the Chinese intel. The Syrian office of PRC state security Guanbu sent many messges to Beijing warning that Assad's fall is inevitable.



Apparently Guanbu has been on the ball on events in Libya and Egypt i.e. got it right. So the Top Brass at PRC  party HQ is listening.


Guanbu has a thinktank called the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations- they have been tasked with preparing for the post assad world. The think tank told leadership to be neutral on Syria as whoever comes in next will guarantee all the contracts with PRC. PRC role mainly civilian but russian contracts maybe cancelled as mainly military in nature.

So, the GCC have signaled that the revolution will continue until the Syrians win, Russia has escalated with naval exercises etc, but the hope is that Russia will reach an accommodation with the GCC to guarantee each others interests. It is clear that there will be only one winner in this battle.

Reports coming from Syria suggest that Libyan mercenaries are being bought in by Qatar. Libyan embassy has been posting adverts for hotel rooms in several turkish cities. Officially these are war veterans who are coming to Turkey for medical treatment and will likely join the FSA camps or join the front line. Rumour has it Qatar is prepared to pay $1000 per month. This was given further credence as Gulf nations pledged $100million in salaries for FSA soldiers.

What is taking place in Syria is a clear proxy war.

Massoud Barzani from the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government has promised Syrian Kurds that they will receive intelligence support for their cause.

The ultimate plan for the region under the GCC eyes is for Syria to become an independent Sunni power which protects the minorities. Then the next plan of attack is to ensure Hezbollah disarms in accordance to the UN security resolution. This resolution was agreed by Hezbollah originally. Hezbollah will become purely a political entity as a result.

Israel is likely/or will be encouraged to give up the Golan to the new "Free" Syria to push peace in the region.

Meanwhile, the next step will be to bring back Iraq from Iranian control and become an independent power. There is a renewed thrust to bring down Maliki of late hence why Maliki has begun to help Assad ever so slightly but remain neutral. Maliki knows he is next.

This is all to remove Iranian influence completely from the region. It is an open secret that the Gulf is in open conflict with Iran and they are determined to win!

Turkish General inspects troops on the Syrian border last week

 
Turkey in the next few weeks will be compelled to act by creating a humanitarian corridor as it sees the mounting number of refugees headed for Turkish refugee camps. Now that Damascus is giving money to the PKK to cause problems, Turkey will also have to act to prevent any miscreants from entering.

We predict that Erdogan would have conveyed to the Iranian leadership last week that the Turkish government is compelled to act in Syria and does not wish for conflict against Iran. So  All we can say Turkey is probably ready for intervention now and are ready to roll. It is communicating with Iran to prevent any escalation between them.

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Israel continue to remain on red alert due to Hezbollah getting ready for a major offensive. Hezbollah hopes to deploy booby trapped drones and anti aircraft batteries. Also in expectation of a renewed confrontation with Iran, Hezbollah have been busy preparing. In order to mitigate their weakness on land and air, Hezbollah are currently busy doubling their underground tunnels and cave networks.

US and Israel continue to exercise regularly - a few months ago US troops had joined Israeli troops on the ground to deter any Hezbollah strike.

We could expect a pre-emptive attack any time by Israel against Hezbollah. The aim of the Hezbollah's action against Israel is not only for diversion but also to expend any Israeli hardware destined for Iran.

The GCC is also on red alert in expectation of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites at any time from now. A lot is being done to prevent this war - particularly the latest US intelligence assessment. This has not deterred the Israeli resolve. Although, US is keen to impress on the Israeli government that they should wait for the sanctions to bite. It usually takes 6 months for this to take place - hence by June/July we can start to see the effects. No one knows what the Israeli's are planning but the regional situation is such that Israel can attack Iran at any point.

Israel has also leaked the news that Israeli recovery crews will be based in Azerbaijan to rescue any downed pilots in a mission in Iran. Some Azeri politicians have also begun to call Northern Iran as Southern Azerbaijan!

We can also possibly expect Hassan Nasrallah to retire as the leader of Hezbollah after the Syrian war and be replaced by his deputy. But this is a story for another day.

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Thanks for your interest - as always drop your comments at "eye.on.middleeast" "At" Gmail dot com

Iran and the Nuclear Issue

Iran has been dominating the news over the last few years, mainly due to its development of a Nuclear Program.
Lets assess the issue at large, interests of each country in the region and world at large.

Iran's Nuclear Program 

Iran's nuclear program appears to be the most pressing issue for the GCC and the west.

What does Iran stand to gain by going nuclear?

It is the same reason why India and others went nuclear. In the words of Former Indian President Abdul Kalam, nuclear weapons are a "weapon of peace". First and foremost for Iran, it is to deter aggressors/bullying and protect the country from the US. Having a nuclear weapon, can deter a major war and essentially cements Irans position as a regional and international player in politics.
Secondly, I believe it allows Iran to flex its muscles regionally. Consequently this is the biggest worry for those in the GCC.

The Iranians continue to agree to talk, just in order to stall for time and keep the clock ticking so that Iranian nuclear scientists can continue to work. It’s just a question of time for the Iranians to come out and say they have a bomb ready for testing.

Will the Iranians actually use it?

You may have heard in the press of Ahmadinejad telling people that Israel will be wiped off the map etc. The west is using this as a tool to scare ordinary people and obtain support for their governments actions on stopping the Iranian nuclear program.

No nation is crazy enough to use it as it will likely be met with an equi-proportionate nuclear response, especially if the target nation has a triad of nuclear missiles (Missiles/Bombs deliverable via Land systems, Airplanes and using Submarines).

Iran and perhaps the nuclear powers too, believe in MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). This is where both sides have enough nuclear missiles to cause serious damage to each other.

So its safe to say that Iran isn't actually getting a nuclear weapon in order to use it, its more of a deterrent and use as a support to foreign policy objectives. However, as the USSR showed us, possessing a nuclear weapon does not guarantee the regime power to rule for an infinite period. Regime change is still very much possible and will continue to be a major threat in my opinion.

Factors to keep in mind:
- It takes more than one test to perfect the weapon (The West have conducted 100's of tests to perfect theirs)
- Even once you have a weapon, you need a credible delivery vehicle that can reach your intended enemy. This can take many years.

Anyone interested in understanding why India went nuclear and how it outsmarted the US in going nuclear, please read Weapons of Peace: The Secret Story of India's quest to become a Nuclear Power by Raj Chengappa.

The US

The views of the senior leadership in Iran is that the US cannot afford another major war. The US has announced timelines to pull out of Iraq and any increase in violence in Iraq will probably slow this process. Iran can obviously make it difficult for the US to pull out. An attack on Iran will in all likeliness cause an upsurge in violence in Iraq by Al Qods forces (Iranian special forces troops controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps). and Iranian controlled militia - specifically the Mahdi army (Officially disbanded but highly active in the South of Iraq) who have been undergoing training with the Hezbollah/IRGC in Iran.

Of course this is also a similar situation in Afghanistan, where certain part of the Taliban are backed by Iran. Evidence of Iranian made shells, weapons etc have showed up in Afghanistan[1]. Members of the Taliban still receive training in Iranian bases close to the border with Afghanistan.

Now the biggest reason why the US can't afford another war is because of its economy. Recent data published by the US Department of Labor of high unemployment (9.8%[2]) Some people go as far as to say that the unofficial US unemployment rate taking into consideration those that have not claimed unemployment benefits is around 1 in 5 people. The economic situation is not improving very much either, this can be witnessed by recent remarks of Ben Bernanke and further stimulus plans.

Imagine if the US was to go to war with Iran, would ordinary people in the street in the West be happy with this? Probably not. Public opinion would frown at such an idea, and will not be happy with a significant portion of their budgets/taxes being spent on "another war!”. Tehran also appears to agree with the idea that US cannot afford another war[3]. In my opinion this is also the same reason why Israel is being held back from attacking Iran, simply because Israel would not be doing itself any favours with the West (support that it needs for its very survival).

The GCC

The GCC is the one that is most worried about the Iranian threat. One can witness the statements from the recent wikileaks saga:  HM King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia repeatedly exhorted the United States to "cut off the head of the snake" by launching military strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program.

HM King Hamad of Bahrain argued "forcefully for taking action to terminate  Iran's nuclear program, by whatever means necessary". "That program must be stopped," he was quoted as saying. "The danger of letting it go on is greater than the danger of stopping".

An Iranian nuclear weapon will provide a lot of power on foreign policy. Each nation in the GCC approaches the issue of Iran differently:

KSA

A crux of the issue for the Saudi's appears to be that Iran is a challenge for their regional power and a leader of Islam.

There are also worries that Iran will be able to meddle in the internal affairs of the Kingdom, especially amongst the significant Shia population in the East of the Kingdom (the majority of saudi oil is located in this region). Worst comes to worst Iran could back a succession movement in the East of the Kingdom.

Bahrain

 Similar to the Saudi's, there is a significant Shi'ite population in the island nation. Bahrain has a long history with Iranian meddling in Internal affairs of Bahrain. The majority of the population in Bahrain is Shi'ite and the rulers are Sunni. I'll go into Iranian activities in the GCC as a whole in another post.

Qatar

Main issue for Qatar is believe it or not NATURAL GAS! Both Iran and Qatar share the worlds largest natural gas fields. They are competitors, in this way and are trying to extract as much gas as possible. As the sea borders are not actually demarcated by either Iran or Qatar, this can be a source of conflict. Iran has displayed aggression here by routinely sending IRGC personnel in boats to damage Qatari Gas infrastructure[4].

UAE

Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb and Abu Mussa Islands that are claimed by the UAE but currently under occupation of Iran.

The GCC

I have left out Kuwait, Oman and Qatar on purpose as most of the issues are covered above. Iran has made threats of attacking GCC nations in the event of any US/Israeli strike coming from their territory. Iranians have also made it clear that they have covert cells in the GCC, in the event of war, will be activated to damage infrastructure (electricity, roads, etc), conduct suicide attacks.

Is this threat for real? Bahrain has faced these threats from the 80s and have dismantled many cells since. Even to this day, building construction work in Manama usually ends up finding buried cache's of professionally packed weapons[5].

Trained in Iran or in Hezbollah camps in the Oronte valley in Lebanon, the elements aim to launch sabotage operations against American and European interests in the event of an attack against Iran. In the event of a war, Iran will use these sleeper cells to launch a civil disobedience movement and send people to the US embassy and to the HQ of the 5th fleet in Manama⁵.

The Saudi decision to set up a force to protect oil facilities came because of the discovery of Iranian infiltrated operatives in the East of the Kingdom.

So in short, Yes the Iranian threat is very real.

Conclusion

Will there be war?

Mmm.... Not sure. At this point in time, the US can't afford a war and neither will the US let anyone else launch any attacks against Iran. But Israel and the West will probably continue to use other methods to slow Iran down - Stuxnet and other covert means.

Does Iran want war?

Despite all the loud noises from Iranian generals of how they will strike their enemies, the Iranians do not want war. Iranians know that they will come out worse in any major war with the US. Iranians are happy to make gutsy moves, like the recent visit to the Lebanon - Israel border by Ahmadinejad, use IRGC boats to intimidate US Navy ships in the Straits of Hormuz. But in my opinion Iran will not do anything major to provoke the US.
In short, neither US or Iran wants a war! Neither will provoke the other in any big way.

What will happen if Iran does nuclearise?

The GCC will make peace with Iran and satisfy their needs. Game theory tells us that the GCC will probably nuclearise (How? Thats a different matter altogether). We have also seen this in the past between India and Pakistan. India was first to nuclearise and Pakistan responded with attaining nuclear weapons[6].
The cheapest option is probably to strike an agreement with one of the nuclear powers - Probably India, Pakistan and the US as the most reliable partners out of the nuclear nations to provide an umbrella. However, will these nations risk getting involved in nuclear war? You decide.
There are a lot of side issues related here that I could not talk about due to time constraints. I hope this has provided readers with a useful basic understanding on what is happening, what the world leaders are thinking about Iran and what we can expect to see in the future.

Thank you for reading.

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[1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/20/AR2007092001236.html Arms Seized in Afghanistan Sent From Iran, NATO Says

[2] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11913196 The US unemployment rate rose to 9.8% in November, the highest rate since April

[3] http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-30081720071020 US in no position for war says Iran minister.

[4] Gulf States Newsletter 845

[5] Gulf States Newsletter 888

[6] http://www.defencejournal.com/2000/june/chagai.htm When Mountains Move, the story of Chagai.

The Wikileaks and the Middle East

Assange: I've got the names of Arab officials spying on their own countries for the CIA

The Internets are buzzing about an interview Julian Assange gave to Al Jazeera's Arabic channel Wednesday, in which the WikiLeaks frontman reportedly threatened to release cables showing that various Arab officials were working with the CIA.
He vowed to do so "if I am killed or detained for a long time."
“These officials are spies for the U.S. in their countries,” Assange said, according to Qatar's Peninsula newspaper. More:

The interviewer, Ahmed Mansour, said at the start of the interview which was a continuation of last week’s interface, that Assange had even shown him the files that contained the names of some top Arab officials with alleged links with the CIA. [...]
Some Arab countries even have torture houses where Washington regularly sends ‘suspects’ for ‘interrogation and torture’, he said.

He then complained, "Washington is also projecting me as a terrorist and wants to convince the world that I am another Osama bin Laden."
Observers have long speculated about the massive "insurance" file that WikiLeaks posted on the Pirate Bay, which has by now been downloaded by thousand of people all over the world. Opening the file requires an encryption key that presumably would be released upon Assange's incarceration or untimely death. I guess it's the motherlode.
I have my doubts about these new claims, though. The CIA vigorously protects the identities of its sources, and would have no reason to let any old schmo at a U.S. embassy know their names. It is also highly doubtful that the cables would talk about "torture houses" -- the United States has always denied that it (knowingly) outsources rough treatment to foreign governments. Not everyone believes this, mind you, but I'd be surprised if any embassy cables said otherwise.
Maybe Assange and Mansour are confusing ordinary visits of Arab officials to U.S. diplomats with "spying," but it's hard to say for sure without seeing the cables themselves.

Assange: Many Arab Officials Work With CIA

Less than 2,000 of the purported 250,000 diplomatic cables in WikiLeaks possession have been made public. There has been plenty of speculation as to what's left, since the revelations thus far have been a broad mix of both gossipy and inflammatory information.
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange told Al Jazeera network Wednesday that some of things he is holding back could be downright explosive, reports the Emptywheel website. Assange said:
"Top officials in several Arab countries have close links with the CIA, and many officials keep visiting US embassies in their respective countries voluntarily to establish links with this key US intelligence agency. These officials are spies for the U.S. in their countries."
The Qatar-based Peninsula newspaper reports that Assange also said the CIA-Arab officials link went deeper than just information-sharing.
Some Arab countries even have torture houses where Washington regularly sends "suspects" for "interrogation and torture," he said.
Assange hinted in the interview that he is letting the link between the CIA and Arab officials be known without naming any specific names in case his upcoming trial in Britain does not go his way, or, worse, should he be assassinated.
"If I am forced we could go to the extreme and expose each and every file that we have access to," Assange said, adding that there were 2,000 websites that were ready to publish the remaining files that are in possession of WikiLeaks after "he has been done away with."

"Oh Dear!" Thats the reaction I would expect in arab capitals over the coming days. Without a hint of doubt if Assange releases these documents, this is going to be explosive in this region and more disastrous for US policy in the Middle East. It will also be seen as proving what the islamic extremists/leftists say about Arab leaders: "They are nothing but puppets". Some GCC leaders will have their fingers and every part of their bodies crossed hoping that Assange doesn't release documents about leaders providing info to the CIA.

The US & GCC

This is certainly is not the first time explosive details regarding the GCC (or other allies) has been leaked to the press. One particular incident was the leak that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was given shelter in Qatar post 9/11 and was supported by a senior Qatari government Minister. See link for reference. 

I am sure many of you would have heard about the statements about personalities of certain senior leaders in the GCC. Suffice to say, these leaders will not be impressed. The leaders in the Gulf are extremely protocol concious, therefore these leaks will be seen as an insult and will in all probably create an air of animosity towards the US for a long period to come.

GCC views on regional countries

GCC leaders described Iraqi PM Nouri Al Maliki as an Iranian stooge, this will obviously impact relations with Iraq as the Maliki government is re-elected. Aside from security issues, this comes at a time when OPEC leaders need the cooperation of Iraq as it continues to grow its oil reserves and exports. The Kurdistan region of Iraq is expected to hold some of the world's largest oil reserves and it is particularly important for OPEC that Iraq will cooperate over the coming years. 

Iran and Qatar have become quite close recently despite the nuclear issue, they recently witnessed numerous agreements relating to defence and others. However the realities are that they are both competing to get as much Natural Gas out of the ground since they both share the worlds largest gas field (this war is being fought by seeing who can get the bigger number of rigs on their side). In the past Iranians have entered qatari waters in order to damage/vandalise Qatari offshore platforms. In response to this a Qatari Special Forces team were trained and set up for fast response.They are placed on constant alert for IRGC vessels entering Qatari waters.

Despite the positivity in public, the Qatari's described the relationship with Iran as "they lie to us and we lie to them". The Qatari military CoS Major Gen. Hamad Al Attiyah described the relationship as “neighbours not friends”.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia called President Asif Ali Zardari the greatest obstacle to Pakistan’s progress and is further quoted as saying “when the head is rotten, it affects the whole body.”. KSA's relationship with Pakistan is unlikely to be affected because Pakistan knows that it requires Saudi financing and support in order to prevent bankruptcy (the nations very survival is at stake). Understandably, Zardari had no choice but to shrug off these statements in public.

Probably the only person to come out of these exposes better is the Sultan of Oman HM Sultan Qaboos bin Said. Read Muscat Confidential's post on this subject for further info.

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There is much more that I left unsaid on this topic but I'm sure more comments will be made as wikileaks releases further diplomatic cables.

Have a Great New Year ALL!