'India and the Persian Connection'

There is a whole lot of talk about how India does not have a robust enough strategic culture. So "Geek at Large", in its own small way, has decided to start hosting guest posts, bringing to the fore varied perspectives in the realms of geopolitics and military affairs.

Today's post deals with the ongoing crisis in the Persian Gulf and the complex Indian response to it where Ananth Durai explains India's understated role in managing the crisis and how it has actually thrown up new opportunities for both widening and deepening our engagement with various players in the region.

India and the Persian connection

Much has been made of the recent move by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) to extradite a terrorist who was involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks - many press reports cited the growing relationship in security and intelligence matters between the two countries. It is indeed true that the growing high-level intelligence interaction between Indian and Saudi counterparts has led to arrests of other wanted terrorists in the Kingdom (not just Lashkar terror operatives). But this is just one part of the multi-faceted relationship between the Kingdom and India.

One of the chief drivers of the growing relationship between the India and Saudi Arabia is the perceived Iranian threat to the latter. Over the past 15 years, Iran has managed to expand its influence into countries that were once perceived to be less of a security threat towards the Saudi Kingdom. Today, Iran is believed to have major control over Iraq - via influence over the politico- religious system (with Gulf leaders referring to the Iraqi PM as an "Iranian stooge"), and the two major Shia Iraqi militias (Mahdi Army and the SCIRI - Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq).Iran also has in place a strong alliance with the Alawite-led Syrian leadership and the oft-spoken-about relationship with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

With the removal of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt - a staunch ally of the Saudis and one who was relied upon as a strong pillar of support especially on the security and defence side of things - the Kingdom sees itself surrounded by emergent problems. The newly elected President of Egypt, Mohammed Morsi, is overtly promising to strengthen ties with Iran and when you couple this with the continuing instability in Bahrain and Yemen, it is completely understandable why the KSA in particular and the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) states in general are looking increasingly nervous.

Indeed, one can but imagine the effect that a nuclear Iran would have on the security affairs of the various Gulf Kingdoms. As a result of this KSA has no choice but to build strong ties with regional powers such as India, Pakistan, Jordan and Turkey. It is also a time when the GCC with KSA, UAE and Qatar at its core is taking proactive steps to defend its security. One standout example of the same would be these countries lending support to Syrian rebels - by providing arms, finances as well as diplomatic support in order to break the Iranian alliance framework in Syria and Lebanon.

With all this happening in the Saudi neighbourhood, the last thing that the GCC needs is an Indo-Pak war which would remove two regional powers who have the capability to intervene favourably in the event of a war between itself and Iran. KSA of course also relies heavily on Pakistani military personnel to man its own armed forces in exchange for the transfer of military equipment, and perhaps for financing up to 30 per cent of the Pakistani military budget. However, it is likely that Pakistan would request these personnel to return in the event of a war with India, which would make the Gulf security situation even more precarious.

The quiet visitors to New Delhi

Last December saw some quiet visits by a few Gulf dignitaries to Delhi - one of whom was Prince Turki Al-Faisal (the former Saudi Intelligence chief) and another was a senior advisor to the Kingdom of Kuwait. Officially they were in India to interact with sundry mandarins in South Bloc and visit the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) but truth be told these visits were probably of much greater importance than is readily understood.

As it turns out, the GCC has been seeking a mediator with Iran for some time over the nuclear issue. Initially, the Sultanate of Oman was chosen due to its relatively close ties with Iran. However, as one Gulf official put it, "No big nation listens to a small nation". This then led to Turkey being asked to mediate between the Iranians and the Arabs. However, the Gulf Kingdoms have been disappointed as Turkey has been unable to deal with the Iranians effectively.

The message conveyed from these visits was that the Gulf leadership is impressed with the way India has been able to deal with the Iranians - particularly, the mechanism created to deal with the subject of Afghanistan (where all difficult issues are discussed) and also India's ties with the entire spectrum of the Iranian leadership. The Gulf Kingdoms, it seems, want India to utilise its relationship with Iran in order to mediate on the nuclear issue. In reference to this, sources have confirmed that India has indeed opened a channel with the Iranians although how effective this has been is, as yet, unclear.

As a quid pro quo, there is an expectation in Indian quarters that the Gulf Kingdoms who have considerable influence in Pakistan can help moderate Pakistani behaviour on terrorism (and other areas of concern), increase investments in Indian infrastructure which will help develop the economy (as it did for the US), growth in all areas of the strategic relationship and pave the way for a FTA to be signed shortly.

Afghanistan

While the Gulf nations are pushing us to help settle the Iranian nuclear file amicably - we can't obviously forget our very real interests in Iran. Since Pakistan has blocked India's access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, India has no choice but to build close relations with Iran. Iran is central to our trade with Central Asia and Afghanistan. Our interests there are not merely trade-oriented but also involve security and defence matters in Eurasia which have a direct impact on us.

The development of the Iranian port of Chabahar and multi-modal transport (rail and road) into Afghanistan as well as Central Asia will allow us access to a highly resource rich region that can be utilised to support our economy. It will also serve as a shorter route for Indian goods heading towards Europe, thus helping to increase the competitiveness of Indian goods.

However, there is also a military aspect to such infrastructure. Having access to roads and rail will give us the capability, should the need arise, to intervene in a large way (subject to Russian and Iranian support of course). All this suggests that India has tough decisions ahead in order to balance our interests in the Gulf with our interests in Iran.

The nuclear file: what lies ahead

Gulf sources acknowledge that sanctions need time to work and a long-term solution is required to fully resolve the issue. It appears there is both a short-term and a long-term strategy at play here with Gulf states, Israel and the west in agreement on these aspects. The short-term strategy is to do all that is possible to delay the Iranian nuclear project by any means possible (including a last resort military strike on Iranian nuclear sites). The long term one, that of regime change (without the need to intervene militarily), can delay the prospects of a nuclear Iran indefinitely if it ever comes to fruition.

A former chief of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, acknowledged that air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites will only delay the project by two years at the most. However, in a recent interview, Dagan admitted that an air strike or regional war will result in people getting behind the regime and hence extending its life. Many US, GCC and Israeli officials agree with the view expressed by Dagan and conclude that the Iranian regime is under deep pressure to deliver results to the Iranian people. Dennis Ross (former Special Advisor to the Obama Administration on the Persian Gulf), in a recent conference, described Iran as similar to the Soviet Union in 1981 where ideology is no longer believed and the veneer is wearing thin. Therefore it is clear that all sides consider a regional war is not the best option although it may get sparked of suddenly as we shall see below.

Concurrently, the aim of the sanctions regime on Iran is to force the Iranian leadership to give up their nuclear weapons programme. If they don't, the pressure on the economy and the Iranian people will result in some sort of Arab spring-type revolution. The use of cyber weapons by western and Israeli intelligence has been particularly successful in the case of Iran with US officials suggesting that they have managed to delay the programme by a couple of years. Going forward, we can expect to see the collective use of sanctions, cyber attacks as well as a naval blockade by the west and Israel.

Why a naval blockade?

A nuclear Iran is not going to be in the interests of either Russia or China as Iran would naturally compete in the same sphere of influence of these two nations, particularly what Russia considers as its back yard, Central Asia. As a result, a blockade imposed by the west will not be really opposed by these two and it will mean that the Iranians will have no option but to cooperate with the world powers on their nuclear programme. After all, attacking your only allies, Russia and China, will not help the Iranians.

Interestingly, the US military has apparently conducted a number of joint exercises off the coast of North Carolina with their Russian and European counterparts, dealing with the "repulsion of an attack by small-sized vessels, helicopter rescue operations, personnel transfer procedures and joint manoeuvring" - operational scenarios that could well describe an asymmetric naval showdown with the Iranian Navy.

After a strike

Some alarming estimates say that Iran is only 8 months away from achieving the capability to build a nuclear weapon and hence Israel as well as the west may be pressured to act militarily before then. In the event of such a scenario, India will have to prepare contingency plans to evacuate the millions of Indians in the region as well as secure energy supplies for itself in the event Iran chooses to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf forces are already on red alert in the region as war between the US/west and Iran could take place by miscalculation on either side, not to mention the high concentration of military vessels/aircraft in the Arabian Gulf where the chances of accidental shots being fired and escalating into a conflict are rather high. Contingency measures have been put in place for the last 6 months by the GCC fearing the worst.

One hopes preparations for such a scenario are being made by Indian military planners as well.

Summing it all up

The growing threat of war would mean that India will have to source oil from more stable neighbourhoods. Africa and South America are possible solutions. India will also need to develop its own shale oil and gas resources. The threat of war will also mean that oil prices will remain sticky at least for the next one to two years and the New Delhi will have to take this into consideration when drawing up its financial plans.

(Ananth Durai is a London-based commentator on regional affairs with a special interest in West Asian political and security issues. He currently works for an accounting firm and has worked extensively within the financial industry. The views expressed by him are personal. You can catch him on Twitter@ADurai)

Originally reported here: http://ibnlive.in.com/blogs/sauravjha/2976/63684/guest-post-1-india-and-the-persian-connection-by-a-durai.html

Regional Update - May 5th

Our first topic of discussion today is Syria:

Protests have been reported in most of the Damascus neighbourhoods and violence is generally increasing against the people.

It is likely Syrian operations will slowly switch to a safe zone where the regime will protect the minority Alawite population against genocide, ethinic cleansing. The system will attempt to sell this to the international media and the UN Security council. This is probably the final card that the regime will play before its demise.

King Abdullah had told Hillary Clinton in their meeting in late march that they won't intervene in Syria via money and arms until early May because they wanted to give the Annan plan a chance. But we are here today and the Annan plan has largely failed as the bloodshed still continues.

Iraq's Maliki has begun to ensure Asad's soldiers receives their payments by the end of April (no public information has been released yet as to Maliki's role in Syria) in addition to allowing Iran to funnel arms.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi

There appears to be a growing discontent in Iraq over the growing role of Iran's clerical establishment in politics and religious affairs. A slow alliance appears to be forming with Grand Ayatollah Sistani leading this coalition against the Iranian attempts. Tehran has attempted to push Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as an alternative to Sistani! It is incredibly difficult to replace Al Sistani and also a rather stupid move by Iran as it is bound to evoke a lot of anger from the ordinary Iraqi.


The Kurdish government will also be joining the anti Maliki grouping, there is now a renewed effort to remove Al Maliki. There is a possibility of protesters demonstrating against the Maliki government corruption and inability to provide improvement to basic services such as healthcare and most importantly electricity as was seen last year.

Israel and Iran Clash

What can we expect in the coming weeks?

Israeli escalations will continue in the coming days in the lead up to the meeting between the P5 + 1 and Iran. It is a fact that the Iranian concessions made as disclosed in the previous post was due to Israeli pressure and the unpredictability of the Israeli's.

What was interesting is that the Netanyahu had mentioned that 4 countries had made preparations for war against Iran. US, Britain and France are likely to be the main candidates.

Add this to the fact that polls show that the Israeli public opinion is that they want the Israeli government to conduct a pre-emptive strike against Iran.

AFP Link
"The poll, published in Haaretz newspaper, found that 65 percent of Jewish Israelis agreed with the statement that "the price Israel would have to pay for living with the threat of an Iranian bomb would be greater than the price it would pay for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities."

The recent report by the Israeli Defence and Security Committee in the Knesset said that if war broke out, it would encompass Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and Iran against Israel. The report further stated that they strongly believe that the proportion of civilian casualties as a result of Katyusha rockets will be 300 - down from 500 of the previous estimate. But lets not forget that Hezbollah have been provided with SCUD - D missiles provided by the Syrian regime after the revolution started.

I am sure many of you must be wondering about the recent public statements of Yuval Diskin (Former Shin Bet Chief) and Meir Dagan and their criticisim of Netanyahu's positions on Iran. Most recently Ehud Olmert has joined this chorus against the Israeli leadership claiming that this war would be catastrophic for Israeli national security.

What do would an Iranian intelligence analyst be thinking after watching and reading the statements of these officials?

They would be highly suspicious as to whether this is an Israeli attempt at strategic deception that has been used for a long time against the Arabs. Why?
Netanyahu is getting so popular to the extent that he is considering calling early elections.

The Likud party appears to be consilidating its position in the government so that it is less susceptible to pressure from smaller parties especially Kadima. Barak will remain the chairman of the Labour party and his team is already in the government. What does all this mean? The government is united to face the Iranian nuclear threat. Could this explain the reason why the Iranian ambassador mentioned that Iran would be ready to implement additional protocols of the NPT allowing suprise IAEA team visits to Iranian nuclear sites.

Also notable is the UAE's claim that they can restore the 3 disputed islands to UAE control via military power if the political decision is made (made by Dubai Police Chief Dhahi Khalfan).Technically it is possible, but the GCC strategists will not do this due to the political cost of the operation. Seizing control of the 3 islands would mean that the Iranian people would unite behind the regime.

For example. on April 23rd in the Journal of Middle East Studies, Ataollah Mohajerani (a person who spent his life in various positions in the Iranian regime )  wrote an article entitled "Israel's attack on Iran: A moment of Irony or truth"  in which he says that the Iranians will unite including reformers and supporters of the green movement if attacked because national security and independence of the state is more important than democracy.

What the gulf take away from this is that this will be the reaction of the Iranian people in the event of any clash - i.e. even the 3 islands issue.

The Saudi Perspective - DECODED!

A Saudi perspective on the Arab uprisings

Editor's Note: Nawaf Obaid is a Senior Fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research & Islamic Studies based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He recently wrote an op-ed for The Washington Post entitled, Why Saudi Arabia is stable amid the Mideast unrest. Previously, Obaid was also private security and energy advisor Nawaf Obaid to Prince Turki al-Faisal when al-Faisal was the Saudi Ambassador to the United States.

By Nawaf Obaid – Special to CNN

The Arab world faces a period of historic upheaval: The economic and social malaise that existed in Tunisia before the revolution remains, and there is no realistic plan to turn the situation around.
Egypt's economy is in free-fall and the Muslim Brotherhood is poised to significantly increase its power through upcoming elections.
Civil war in Libya and escalating violence in Yemen have cost thousands of lives and set back development by decades.
Syria is on the edge of an abyss of nightmarish internecine warfare, which could spill into Lebanon, Turkey and Iraq.
The so-called "Arab Spring" has not brought new life to the Middle East, but leaderless anarchy, creating a virtual pan-regional movement that is alarmingly dangerous and ultimately unsustainable.
Recognizing the threat that the spread of this movement represents, Saudi Arabia is expanding its role internationally and mobilizing its vast resources to help countries facing domestic upheaval.
As the birthplace of Islam and the leader of the Muslim and Arab worlds, Saudi Arabia has a unique responsibility to aid states in the region, assisting them in their gradual evolution toward more sustainable political systems and preventing them from collapsing and spreading further disorder.
That the Kingdom has the ability to implement this foreign policy goal should not be in doubt - it is backed by significant military and economic strength.
The foundation for this more robust strategic posture is Saudi Arabia's investment of around $150 billion in its military. This includes a potential expansion of the National Guard and Armed Forces by at least 120,000 troops, and a further 60,000 troops for the security services at the Interior Ministry, notably in the special and various police forces. A portion of these will join units that could be deployed beyond the Kingdom's borders.
In addition, approximately 1,000 new state-of-the-art combat tanks may be added to the Army, and the Air Force will see its capabilities significantly improve with the doubling of its high quality combat airplanes to about 500 advanced aircraft.
A massive new missile defense system is in the works. Finally, the two main fleets of the Navy will undergo extensive expansion and a complete refurbishment of existing assets.
As part of this new defense doctrine, the leadership has decided to meet the country's growing needs for new equipment by diversifying among American, European and Asian military suppliers.
Few countries are able to support such considerable military investment, but Saudi Arabia occupies a unique position in that it has sufficient reserves and revenues to carry out the above plans, while also funding vital domestic social programs.
With 25 percent of the world's oil reserves and over 70 percent of global spare capacity, current projections for the next five years estimate that the Kingdom will earn on average about $250 billion in oil revenue per year (for 2011, the projection is almost $300 billion). In addition, the Kingdom has approximately $550 billion in foreign reserves, a sum it plans to steadily increase.
To maintain current oil export levels while at the same time fulfilling its growing domestic energy needs, the government is investing heavily in solar technology, and will spend more than $100 billion to build at least 16 nuclear power plants across the Kingdom.
Solar energy will fill the gap in the short term, satisfying some incremental domestic energy needs, and within a decade, plans call for nuclear power to play the leading role in augmenting oil as a source of domestic energy.
Thus, Saudi Arabia will be able to fuel the growth of its burgeoning economy without significantly reducing its oil exporting capability.
The Kingdom's more assertive policies are already apparent. It has provided Egypt $4 billion and Jordan $400 million (the latter could form the first installment of a much larger aid package that is being discussed).
Saudi Arabia is also leading the effort to improve regional collaboration by working to include Jordan and Morocco in a Saudi-centric Gulf Cooperation Council alliance.
In Yemen, it is spearheading diplomatic negotiations to effect a peaceful transition of power.
The Kingdom is the main supporter of Bahrain's monarchy, and will maintain a military presence there.
As Saudi Arabia grows more influential, initiatives such as these - which currently stretch from Morocco to Malaysia - will increase in number and reach, regardless of whether they meet with Western approval.
In Saudi Arabia, protests on the so-called "Day of Rage" predicted by pundits never materialized; the country remains stable and the leadership enjoys widespread support.
Those who are similarly skeptical about the Kingdom's ability to rise to its historic role as the indispensable regional power will again be proven wrong. The Saudi government will use its vast resources to steer the Arab world away from anarchy and unrealistic populist movements, and towards steady evolution in a manner that respects each country's unique culture and history.
The views expressed in this piece are solely those of Nawaf Obaid.

Despite the disclaimer at the end, we know that Nawaf Obaid has regular interactions with the highest levels of the Saudi government. Born of a Lebanese mother and Saudi father, Obaid has lived in Switzerland, where his mother resides, and studied in the United States. He holds degrees from Georgetown University, MIT and Harvard. His articles tend to be fairly accurate in terms of the positions taken by the Saudi government and are often prescient.

Nawaf's article DECODED:

• They will back political political parties that are pro - Saudi in the Arab spring countries and if these parties come to power, the KSA government will back them to preserve a status quo. The KSA will do everything possible to preserve the status quo across the region and beyond (hence incorporating Jordan & Morocco) hence even supporting sunni monarchies such as Malaysia.
• Interesting that he hints that the Saudi units "could" be deployed abroad. He is referring to the Saudi Special Forces and specifically we believe he is hinting at deployment in either Lebanon (to cut off Hezbollah) or possibly in Iraq to defend the sunni tribes. Cheney had proposed deploying sunni troops in sunni provinces of Iraq such as Al Anbar back in 2006.

• Mentioning the specific Saudi plans to expand tanks, air force and army is a further confirmation that Saudi's will protect their own interests with minimal help of the US Security agreement. The emergence of a muslim brotherhood dominated Egyptian government is likely to be seen as a threat by the KSA government and particularly an egypt that is renewing diplomatic links with Iran. Therefore, the new air force/Naval purchases and expansion will be so that KSA can deal with a 2/3 front war (Red sea, arabian gulf, Iraqi borders).
• Tier 1 and 2 (high tech equipment such as Aircraft or Electronic warfare equipment) purchases will be from US/EU defence firms with some Russian systems, but Tier 3 equipment will be purchased from possibly China or India or maybe Russia.
• Saudi aid to Jordan is an incentive for Jordan to join the GCC. Once Jordan joins the GCC, it will be able to take advantage of larger aid packages.
• The article hints that KSA is likely to build a permanent base in Bahrain.
• The last paragraph reaffirms that KSA will do everything to prevent further pro-democracy movements in the region.

We'd also add that KSA will have to train up a vast number of Saudi defence personell, as it currently relies mainly on deputed Egyptian and Pakistani officers to man aircraft/naval vessels. The large increase in defence assets would also mean that more such officers will be brought in termporarily from Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and other countries until Saudi officers are able to take over. This further re-affirms the position of Pakistan as a strategic partner to KSA.

Meanwhile, the Iranian government hasn't sat back to these latest developments. Stay tuned for the next post which will detail the Iranian response!

Feel free to post a comment or email us your views at eye.on.middleeast "At" Gmail "dot" com.

Dubai Police Chief Lt Gen Khalifan's comments in the press

The Dubai police chief had recently made comments regarding expat workers. You can find the first article from Gulf News describing his statements on Qatar TV.

Dubai Police chief calls on them to stop relying on expat workers

* By Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief

Manama: Dubai's Police Chief supported a claim that if the population of expatriate workers continued to rise in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states at the current pace, Gulf citizens would soon be marginalised.

"The possibility of GCC nationals turning into a minority in their own countries cannot be ruled out if a law is, for instance, promulgated and enforced to naturalise expatriates," Lieutenant Colonel Dahi Khalfan Tamim said.

He was reacting to questions from the audience at a popular monthly call-in programme on Qatar Television Laqum Al Qarar (It Is Your Decision).

The audience comprised mostly young people from across the Gulf, Qatari daily The Peninsula reported yesterday.

The discussion addressed the issue if the rising numbers of foreign workers posed a serious threat to the GCC identity and culture, and if so, what steps the governments in the region could take to reduce the danger.

If the GCC governments do not take bold steps to check the inflow of foreign workforce, a day could come when locals would be marginalised in their own countries and become like Red Indians in the United States, Lt Gen Dahi said.

Unending chain

Citing examples, he said Malayalees (people from the south Indian state of Kerala) and Iranians who came to the Gulf and ran small neighbourhood stores eventually became millionaires.

"Why can't we run these stores which, after all, we legally own? But we do not want to do such work," he said. An Indian driver is hired by a Gulf family and then he manages to bring a relative even if there is no job for him. The relative hunts for a job and lands one. This is an unending chain," Dahi said. Ministers should bring to the notice of the GCC Rulers the rising threat the heavy influx of foreign workers poses to GCC identity and culture," he said.

However, when asked if the problem could be tackled to some extent if more workers were brought in from Arab countries, Lt Gen Dahi said: "I do agree that they [Arab expatriates] are better than non-Arabs."

Here is an interview in Khaleej Times giving Lt Gen Dahi Khalifan a chance to clarify his comments.

Dhahi for expat quota to preserve identities

Amira Agarib

27 December 2010, 6:32 AM

Dubai Police Chief Lt General Dhahi Khalfan Tamim recommended a quota system for all nationalities in the UAE to keep the expat population in the country in check.

He made the comment while reaffirming his remarks made to a television channel on Saturday that expats are a threat to the national identity of Emiratis as well as GCC nationals.

Speaking to Khaleej Times, the Commander-in-Chief of the Dubai Police said the Emirati society, which has traditionally been open to other cultures, has the right to preserve its national identity.

The outspoken police chief warned that expatriates may endanger the identity of the UAE nationals in a way that they could influence the culture and the language of the local children, noting that expatriates have brought with them many things that are today misunderstood to be the traditional elements of Emirati culture.

“Today Emiratis are very concerned about their national identity, as the number of foreigners is rising rapidly and nationals are now a minority in their own country. To keep the balance, I recommended a quota system that would ensure that the number of other nationalities should not be more than UAE nationals and Arabs.”

Warning against the mass influx of foreigners to the country, he said only those people who are needed for the jobs should be allowed in the country.

Pointing out the rules of many other countries that discourage import of foreign workforce, he said: “If we go to any of other country to reside, it is considered offensive; they do not allow us easily to reside, work or invest. Each country has its own rules and conditions and we have to do the same to preserve our national identity.

However, he reassured that the country has no hostilities towards foreigners. “But we are concerned about losing our identity, heritage and language. The new generation of Emiratis feel increasingly isolated and expatriates could not observe Emirati culture and adapt to it.”

Dhahi had made the comments on Qatar TV on Saturday, likening the case of GCC nationals to that of Red Indians in the US.

 These are some interesting comments.

Now if you are an expat, one would feel that these comments are a little unfair. Expats are not coming to Dubai (or for that matter any GCC country) to seek welfare benefits (unlike in the UK or in Europe, where healthcare/education is free for all residents). Expats of Dubai pay for everything, schooling, electricity, tax (where applicable) and most importantly health, expats do not seek any benefits from the government. Expats are there to WORK, because there are jobs there that Emirati's are not as qualified to do or do not want to do. In fact, the current rules where Emirati's must be a partner in the business has made the local people lazy and happy about getting cash without having to do much work.

What about the expat who was born in one of these GCC countries? He is a foreigner in the only place he knows well, he goes "back home" to his/her native only to find people calling them foreigners there. They have no identity.

 But if you are an Emirati, you can understand Lt Gen. Khalifan's view. "Where is my culture?" "We want our people to benefit from the growth". It must be hard going to your local  grocery shop to see foreigners working there and having to communicate in a foreign language (English, Malayalam or Farsi).

The attitude of the leadership in most GCC partners, is not to provide nationality to expats in order to preserve their welfare for the local(indigenous) population. Frankly speaking this cements the power for the leaders as their subjects are happy (they have money, education, a world class healthcare system thanks to the visionary leaders). Imagine the effect it would have on the national population if all of a sudden expats were given nationality? Budgets would have to significantly increase, healthcare/education costs would shoot up. This would affect leaders positions politically as the level of service will decrease.

The Sultanate of Oman has offered a slightly different policy to other GCC nations, I believe the rules are if a expat has been resident there for over 25 years and can speak arabic (there are other additional rules here that need to be fulfilled), may naturalise. The country has also provided nationality to many expats who have contributed significantly to the development. This demonstrates fairness and vision of HM Sultan Qaboos.

What is the solution to the Dubai Police Chief's comments?

As in any other western country, seeking naturalisation in the GCC should involve adopting to the local culture. In the UK for example, a naturalisation applicant needs to show english proficiency and must sit a MCQ test on British history/culture. I think adopting something similar maybe a viable option.

Today, the global economy relies on a workforce that can move in and out of the country easily. The Conservative/Liberal Democrat government in the UK have similar problems with the number of immigrants coming to the country. They responded by having a proposal limiting the number of visas. This is NOT A viable option, simply because no MNC in the country will accept this and it is causing a storm. I can place a wager that this promise will not be filled by the current government in the UK simply because this is impossible to do in todays open global economy.


UAE & Oman rely on global trade (Think of the ports in the UAE, Salalah in Oman, HH Sheikh Mohammed's visionary airports in Dubai), it needs Indian IT professionals to come in and do their work, it needs foreign cleaners, it needs more foreign businessmen for trade in their freezones. Its this "openness" that contributes significantly to the growth of the GCC economies. Having a high expat population is a consequence to today's global economy. Closing yourself to the world will be disaster for the economies in the Gulf. Thankfully, the leaders are smart and recognise this.

My guess is that the GCC will provide naturalisation without the benefits that the local "indigenous" population receive such as subsidised healthcare/education etc at some point in the future.

PS. My message to expats is spare a thought for the locals and the leaders of the countries. My message to the "locals" is spare a thought for the expats and don't forget they are contributing to the growth of your great countries.

Thanks for Reading.

Added later:
The GCC should continue to build world class education infrastructure, provide the tools in order for their citizens (locals) to benefit and be able to play a productive part in their economies. Recently, there were complaints on quality (cheating allegations, bribes to professors in order for students to pass exams) of graduates produced at GCC universities. The government and the leadership need to pay attention to this area and ensure that QUALITY of graduates are improved.

India and the Sultanate of Oman - A timeline of relations

Burgeoning relations with our friendly neighbour Oman.

The people of India and Oman have had historical relations from well before the Indus Valley civilisation[1]. In 1766, the Omani Ruler Imam Ahmad bin Said was helped by the Mughal emperor Shah Alam in his war against pirates hampering trade between Mangalore and Oman[2]. These relations were solidified by the signing of a treaty. Till India became independent, military and economic support to the Sultanate of Oman was provided by the British from India. Oman's complete requirement of arms and ammunition as well as all military necessities were supplied from Indian Ordnance Factories, free of cost[3].

Indians (primarily of Sindhi and Gujarati origin) have resided in Oman since the 1500’s. Today, Khimji Ramdas, a famous Omani of Indian origin is the owner of one of the largest business houses in Oman and perhaps the GCC. In fact Bhairamji Khimji is the first non-muslim citizen to be honoured with the title of Sheikh. Hindu temples have been in Oman since the 1700's showing a secular, multicultural and vibrant Omani society. 

It also helps to know that many senior Omani government officials including the Sultan have visited India for education. His Majesty Taimur bin Faisal after his abdication in 1932 had lived mostly in India and is buried in Bombay (now Mumbai). His son Sultan Said bin Taimur (The current sultan’s father) had been educated in a school in Ajmer, India[4] and the current ruler Sultan Qaboos bin Said has been educated for a short time in Pune, India[5]. A close advisor (Al Zawawi) to His Majesty also spent some of his schooling time in a Jesuit school in Bombay[6].

The strength of our relations today is much related to the sea trade, as Oman is the first Arabian country when sailing out of the western shores of India. 

Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi visited Muscat in 1985 for the celebrations to mark the 15th anniversary of Sultan Qaboos’s accession and initiated the process of regular high level contacts with Oman. The Omani ruler shared with Gandhi his security pre-occupations. As a result of this, Indian Medical personnel were deputed for 2 years into the Omani armed forces and later this expanded to communications and engineering units being deputed as and when needed[7]. 

Rajiv Gandhi meeting Sultan Qaboos in 1985. Copyrights with Indian Embassy Muscat

Prime Minister Shri PV Narasimha Rao visited Oman in June 1993. The landmark visit launched a new era in bilateral relations between the two countries, especially in the economic sphere. During the visit, a number of joint initiatives were launched and the setting up of an India-Oman Joint Commission at Ministerial level was agreed upon[8]. Senior officials in India's Foreign Ministry say that India and Oman have had a "special relationship" since Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao's visit to the sultanate in 1993. It was during this visit that the agreement to cooperate in the hydrocarbon and fertilizer sectors was reached[9].  Oman is one of the few countries in the region that have made it a policy to abstain from voting whenever a vote on Kashmir is taken at international forums such as the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC). In fact Oman was the only Muslim state not to fully back (by abstaining from vote) Pakistan in the 1971 war debate at the UN. 

Visit of Prime Minister Shri Narasimha Rao to Oman in June 1993 (Copyrights to Indian Embassy Muscat)

In 1998, at the backdrop of Indian nuclear tests, Vajpayee paid his first visit to Oman. (Shown in the 2 pictures below). During this visit it is said that Oman “expressed full understanding” to India’s position on nuclear weapons. 

Today, relations have expanded far beyond economic relations and the historic relations have now transformed itself into a strategic relationship. Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Oman in 2006 resulted in the creation of a joint Oman India military committee, which would ultimately pave the way for Indian military equipment to be sold to Oman. The fruits of this effort can be seen today as Oman has decided to purchase the INSAS rifle, which will become the main assault rifle of the Omani soldier[10]. Oman has also purchased 3 tugboats from India and Oman has expressed its interest for purchase of more naval vessels from India[11]. 

Variants of the INSAS Rifle

Omani soldiers and sailors have been training in India for many years. Up until 2008, relations were driven primarily between the navies of the 2 nations. For example When an Indian ship encountered a problem off the northern part of Yemen, its officers were flown immediately to Muscat and from there to India[12]. However defence cooperation has expanded between the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Royal Air Force of Oman (RAFO), who recently held their first ever annual air exercise code named ‘Eastern Bridge’ at Thumrait Air force base. The focus of this was anti-piracy and building relationships. One cannot also miss the fact that the terrain of Oman is highly similar to that of Balochistan province of Pakistan. Experience in Oman can prove to be invaluable. Next year, both countries will hold their biggest ever military exercise in India that will involve units from the army, navy and coast guard of both countries[13]. 

A RAFO Jaguar leads a pair of IAF Jaguars over Oman (Courtesy: IAF via Bharat Rakshak)

The increase in the number of defence exercises as well as the size and complexity between the two countries are due to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Oman in November 2008 to sign a defence pact[14]. Since then there has been a number of naval exercises between the 2 navies. 

The Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh with the Sultan of Oman, HM Sultan Qaboos Bin Said Al-Said, in Muscat on November 9, 2008. P D Photo by B M Meena (PTI)

 

Oman and India have shared similar views on regional political and security issues. For example both agree that they would like to see a stable Afghanistan and the leadership of both countries have expressed concern over fundamentalism in the region during Vajpayee’s visit to Oman in 1998. Defence Minister AK Anthony during a visit to Oman in May said “we have a common aim in Afghanistan and that is to ensure that it does not become a base of safe haven for terrorists again. We want a stable, moderate, unified and democratic Afghanistan”[15]. Oman has been a major NATO logistics base for Af-Pak (Afghanistan/Pakistan) operations, as cargo is airlifted to Afghanistan on a daily basis via Muscat.

Post Mumbai attacks of 2008, the Omani foreign minister was the first from any of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Countries) to visit India and had called for “Pakistan to move beyond assurances to firm action against the perpetrators of the attacks”. The foreign minister of Oman His Exellency Yusuf bin Allawi bin Abdullah also told his counterpart “there could be no excuse for not dismantling the infrastructure of terrorism across the Indian border”[16].

Subsequent investigations found that the Pakistani based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba had a cell in Muscat. This cell was involved in financing terror operations in India, in particular the Bangalore blasts in 2008. The Omani authorities had already arrested many of this cell for plotting attacks inside Oman. The Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) was able to locate one of the prime suspects of the Bangalore attacks named Sarfraz Nawaz in Muscat who was under arrest by the Royal Omani Police (ROP) for being involved with the Lashkar cell. Oman had extradited Nawaz secretly to India in order to face trial and help Indian investigators. Nawaz’s extradition proved to be a treasure of information on the lashkar’s finance network in the Middle East.  The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the ROP had also been working together on this case. The Home ministry have gone on record to say “Oman’s responses are a model for smooth trans-national cooperation that are needed to counter the threat (of terrorism)”[17].

The joint investigation found that an Omani national named Ali Abdul Aziz Al Hooti was involved in financing the Bangalore blasts but more critically he may have been deeply involved in the Mumbai attacks. Investigators found that Al Hooti (who has been sentenced for life in Oman) had visited Mumbai days before the attack took place. Police in Oman have relayed to their Indian counterparts that he remained in close contact with Lashkar commanders in Pakistan and had direct links with key suspects of the Mumbai attacks[18].  The Intelligence Bureau has contacted the Omani authorities in order to extradite Al Hooti to India, and it is said that talks are on between the governments[19]. This will be a further test to cooperation between the 2 countries.

The Future

Apart from expanding cooperation in the defence, security and economic areas, India looks to expand cooperation in peaceful civilian nuclear energy with the Sultanate of Oman. This was mentioned to Omani officials by the then Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Shashi Tharoor[20]. Another area where India would like to get involved in is GCC wide construction of a rail network. We can also look forward to the signing of the Oman India Joint Investment fund which will have its headquarters in Mumbai. This fund which will have initial fund of $100million will have the option to be upgraded to $1.5 billion, which will be used to fund infrastructure projects in both countries. A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between India and the GCC appear to be on the cards, however these have been bogged down to differences with Saudi Arabia. 

 

The relationship between both countries has come along way since contacts were first made by the Indus valley civilisation. Today the strength of relationship is due to the vision of the Sultan of Oman His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said and successive Indian government officials.

---

[1] http://www.thebluemoon2008.com/pg_face2face.html

[2] http://mofa.gov.om/mofanew/index.asp?id=43

[3] http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=53650

[4]  Peterson, John E.. Oman in the Twentieth Century. New York: Barnes and Noble Books, 1978

[5] http://www.omanreference.com/sultanqaboos.aspx

[6] Gulf States Newsletter GSN 875 – Al Zawawi Group

[7] Oman and the World, Joseph A Kechchian. – RAND Corporation

[8] http://www.indemb-oman.org/india_oman_relations.asp

[9] www.thehindu.com/fline/fl1520/15200660.htm

[10] http://idrw.org/?p=2060

[11] http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Oman-places-order-for-weapons-from-India/599647/

[12] http://beta.thehindu.com/news/national/article40600.ece

[13] http://www.khaleejtimes.com/displayarticle.asp?xfile=data/international/2010/May/international_May1046.xml&section=international&col=

[14] http://www.idsa.in/idsastrategiccomments/IndianPMsVisittoOmanandQatar_ZHussain_021208

[15] http://frontierindia.net/wa/india-and-oman-to-step-up-cooperation-in-maritime-security/815/

[16] http://www.hindu.com/2008/12/18/stories/2008121888881100.htm

[17] http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/28/stories/2009052850390100.htm

[18] http://www.hindu.com/2009/05/28/stories/2009052850390100.htm

[19] http://news.rediff.com/report/2010/may/27/anniversary-26-11-ib-seeks-al-hooti-for-mumbai-attacks.htm

[20] http://www.timesofoman.com/innercat.asp?detail=33221#

The Middle East (or West Asia in MEA parlance)

The aim of this blog is to keep upto date with West Asian current affairs (in particular the GCC) and express views on the Middle East in the eyes of India.

The blog will also cover a wide array of subjects impacting politics in the Middle East. I intend to post views on major incidents in the past such as the Israel - Hezbollah war, local politics of the UAE (as a result of the fallout from Dubai's economic collapse) and Mumbai Attacks (26/11).

The people of India and the Middle East have had historical relations for well over 2000 years. 

The strength of these relations over history has always been related to the sea trade and the geography.

India's closest ally in the Middle East has always been the Sultanate of Oman. My next post will be a walkthrough of relations between the Sultanate of Oman and the republic of India.

Dear Readers, if you have any news and views please email eye.on.middleeast "at" gmail dot com

Many Thanks.