Ankara Whispers...

The latest from Ankara is the following:

The latest from Ankara is that Iran asked US/European powers to restrain Israel from striking as long as negotiations continue. There is also semi approval of stopping 20% enrichment and in return Iranians made a list of demands such as saying that they wont dismantle the reactor in Fordo and asking the west to gradually remove some sanctions in return.

Next will continue to talk in Baghdad: - why Baghdad? This is possibly due to Iran having an extensive intelligence network there in order to find out what the negotiators are thinking.

Why do the Iranians want to talk all of a sudden?
1. Possibility of an Israeli military strike and 2. Congress's decision to pass another batch of U.S. economic sanctions affecting the import oil from Iran.  Analysts believe that Iran has been accumulating during the last six months of Uranium enriched to 20%, giving it greater flexibility to withdraw from the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and putting together a bomb during a short period as did the North Koreans. The Iranians know that the Israelis know it and so the fear of Israeli strike seriously. 

India has started looking elsewhere for oil because it fears that Iranian oil may be disrupted as a result of a war.


Syria:

Turkish strategists have released a report on the 10th of April regarding intervention in Syria. For more insight into what an intervention will look like please read the report: 
http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2012410_2012410_115raport%C3%BCrkin.pdf


However, the Turkish/NATO strategists know that action in Syria means challenging Russia hence are extra cautious on Syria. Challenging Russia is a big NO NO for NATO and don't really want to go into conflict with Russia. Plans are certainly in place. It is likely that intervention in Syria will only take place if NATO are with Turkey on the plans as they are challenging Russia.


 A leak of a report by officials, giving an insight into failures by NATO in the recent campaign in Libya suggests that NATO is not onboard. 
The article in NYT can be read here: 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/nato-sees-flaws-in-air-campaign-against-qaddafi.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=nato&st=cse

PM Erdogan's visit to KSA also ended in numerous disagreements on financing of refugees, purpose of the safe haven and most notably Islamists ruling the Free Syria in a post Asad world.

Hezbollah, Israel, Iran and the LIon - Regional Update - April 4th

Firstly, We at the Middle East Analysis would like to apologise for our long delay in posting information. This update will obviously slightly longer than usual to explain the complete scenario.

Summary of Regional Situation:

- GCC conveys message to Russia that either way the revolution will win either via a coup or a war of attrition
- Syrian intelligence has  increased support to the PKK, in response to Turkish logistical support of the Free Syrian Army (FSA)
- Israel is on red alert based on intelligence inputs of Hezbollah preparing to launch a diversionary strike against Israel to get the Syrian people to divert their attention to Israel and also to any possible retaliation for an attack on Iran
- GCC on red alert in expectation of an Israeli strike which they believe can take place from any time now.
- Turkish government preparing for intervention in Syria - its a case of when, not if.
- Libyan veterans bought in by Qatar to join the ranks of the FSA

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Contrary to news reports weapons have been reaching FSA and will do so in a faster way given that the US has decided to supply communication sets (that was previously being intercepted by Syrian intelligence).

Jordan and GCC intelligence mixed with western intelligence are running their intel/logistical/financial support from Iraqi sunni tribal areas.

PRC even though vetoed the UN resolution, they dont think Assad can survive. Damascus was the first major middle East Hub for the Chinese intel. The Syrian office of PRC state security Guanbu sent many messges to Beijing warning that Assad's fall is inevitable.



Apparently Guanbu has been on the ball on events in Libya and Egypt i.e. got it right. So the Top Brass at PRC  party HQ is listening.


Guanbu has a thinktank called the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations- they have been tasked with preparing for the post assad world. The think tank told leadership to be neutral on Syria as whoever comes in next will guarantee all the contracts with PRC. PRC role mainly civilian but russian contracts maybe cancelled as mainly military in nature.

So, the GCC have signaled that the revolution will continue until the Syrians win, Russia has escalated with naval exercises etc, but the hope is that Russia will reach an accommodation with the GCC to guarantee each others interests. It is clear that there will be only one winner in this battle.

Reports coming from Syria suggest that Libyan mercenaries are being bought in by Qatar. Libyan embassy has been posting adverts for hotel rooms in several turkish cities. Officially these are war veterans who are coming to Turkey for medical treatment and will likely join the FSA camps or join the front line. Rumour has it Qatar is prepared to pay $1000 per month. This was given further credence as Gulf nations pledged $100million in salaries for FSA soldiers.

What is taking place in Syria is a clear proxy war.

Massoud Barzani from the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government has promised Syrian Kurds that they will receive intelligence support for their cause.

The ultimate plan for the region under the GCC eyes is for Syria to become an independent Sunni power which protects the minorities. Then the next plan of attack is to ensure Hezbollah disarms in accordance to the UN security resolution. This resolution was agreed by Hezbollah originally. Hezbollah will become purely a political entity as a result.

Israel is likely/or will be encouraged to give up the Golan to the new "Free" Syria to push peace in the region.

Meanwhile, the next step will be to bring back Iraq from Iranian control and become an independent power. There is a renewed thrust to bring down Maliki of late hence why Maliki has begun to help Assad ever so slightly but remain neutral. Maliki knows he is next.

This is all to remove Iranian influence completely from the region. It is an open secret that the Gulf is in open conflict with Iran and they are determined to win!

Turkish General inspects troops on the Syrian border last week

 
Turkey in the next few weeks will be compelled to act by creating a humanitarian corridor as it sees the mounting number of refugees headed for Turkish refugee camps. Now that Damascus is giving money to the PKK to cause problems, Turkey will also have to act to prevent any miscreants from entering.

We predict that Erdogan would have conveyed to the Iranian leadership last week that the Turkish government is compelled to act in Syria and does not wish for conflict against Iran. So  All we can say Turkey is probably ready for intervention now and are ready to roll. It is communicating with Iran to prevent any escalation between them.

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Israel continue to remain on red alert due to Hezbollah getting ready for a major offensive. Hezbollah hopes to deploy booby trapped drones and anti aircraft batteries. Also in expectation of a renewed confrontation with Iran, Hezbollah have been busy preparing. In order to mitigate their weakness on land and air, Hezbollah are currently busy doubling their underground tunnels and cave networks.

US and Israel continue to exercise regularly - a few months ago US troops had joined Israeli troops on the ground to deter any Hezbollah strike.

We could expect a pre-emptive attack any time by Israel against Hezbollah. The aim of the Hezbollah's action against Israel is not only for diversion but also to expend any Israeli hardware destined for Iran.

The GCC is also on red alert in expectation of an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites at any time from now. A lot is being done to prevent this war - particularly the latest US intelligence assessment. This has not deterred the Israeli resolve. Although, US is keen to impress on the Israeli government that they should wait for the sanctions to bite. It usually takes 6 months for this to take place - hence by June/July we can start to see the effects. No one knows what the Israeli's are planning but the regional situation is such that Israel can attack Iran at any point.

Israel has also leaked the news that Israeli recovery crews will be based in Azerbaijan to rescue any downed pilots in a mission in Iran. Some Azeri politicians have also begun to call Northern Iran as Southern Azerbaijan!

We can also possibly expect Hassan Nasrallah to retire as the leader of Hezbollah after the Syrian war and be replaced by his deputy. But this is a story for another day.

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