Ankara Whispers...

The latest from Ankara is the following:

The latest from Ankara is that Iran asked US/European powers to restrain Israel from striking as long as negotiations continue. There is also semi approval of stopping 20% enrichment and in return Iranians made a list of demands such as saying that they wont dismantle the reactor in Fordo and asking the west to gradually remove some sanctions in return.

Next will continue to talk in Baghdad: - why Baghdad? This is possibly due to Iran having an extensive intelligence network there in order to find out what the negotiators are thinking.

Why do the Iranians want to talk all of a sudden?
1. Possibility of an Israeli military strike and 2. Congress's decision to pass another batch of U.S. economic sanctions affecting the import oil from Iran.  Analysts believe that Iran has been accumulating during the last six months of Uranium enriched to 20%, giving it greater flexibility to withdraw from the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and putting together a bomb during a short period as did the North Koreans. The Iranians know that the Israelis know it and so the fear of Israeli strike seriously. 

India has started looking elsewhere for oil because it fears that Iranian oil may be disrupted as a result of a war.


Syria:

Turkish strategists have released a report on the 10th of April regarding intervention in Syria. For more insight into what an intervention will look like please read the report: 
http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/enUploads/Article/Files/2012410_2012410_115raport%C3%BCrkin.pdf


However, the Turkish/NATO strategists know that action in Syria means challenging Russia hence are extra cautious on Syria. Challenging Russia is a big NO NO for NATO and don't really want to go into conflict with Russia. Plans are certainly in place. It is likely that intervention in Syria will only take place if NATO are with Turkey on the plans as they are challenging Russia.


 A leak of a report by officials, giving an insight into failures by NATO in the recent campaign in Libya suggests that NATO is not onboard. 
The article in NYT can be read here: 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/world/africa/nato-sees-flaws-in-air-campaign-against-qaddafi.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=nato&st=cse

PM Erdogan's visit to KSA also ended in numerous disagreements on financing of refugees, purpose of the safe haven and most notably Islamists ruling the Free Syria in a post Asad world.

Turkey - Syria - Iran Dynamic

Here is a quick summary on what is taking place in Syria:

- Muslim Brotherhood is not doing much at the moment but waiting and watching. Some cities the situation is bad, some has had no problems.
- Erdogan has given 15 days for Assad to introduce reforms.
- Israeli, Turkish intel cooperation has begun as of late June.
- Assessment is that Iran will provide missile support in the event of Turkish intervention. Russia already gave the Panshyr Anti A/c missiles to Syria.
- Sounds like some Air force aircraft has transferred to Izmir from Spain and Germany. USS Bataan has been in the eastern medeterrainean for a while now.
- Turkish drones are doing over flights over Syria. And Iranians are doing the same close to the Turkish border. Turks have already amassed tanks weeks ago.
- Turkish Pres expected in Riyadh soon. Military action is on the table.
- Turks have told Assad to implement reforms before its too late.
- Western ships in a defensive ABM role have been amassing close to Turkey
- Several nations conducted the Sea Breeze exercise in June. See http://www.dodlive.mil/index.php/2011/0 ... -a-splash/
- Hezbollah and Iran have already issued threats to the Turks.
- Things have heated up in Bahrain, KSA and Turks are coming in to settle/negotiate the issue with the Bahraini shia groups.
- The next steps will be to split up the Syrian Army. There are about 9 units within the Syrian military where loyalties to the regime are suspect, the aim is to link these military groups with the protesters.

Conclusion - It is likely that Assad will introduce some reforms to stall the anti government protesters. We believe there is now a new determination in the sunni GCC to bring down Bashar Al Assad. Turkey will be coordinating most of the actions.
It is safe to expect more attrocities against the Syrian civilians in the coming days.

Added later: It appears that Iran is getting cornered completely in their efforts to help the Syrian regime. The land route via Iraq is likely to be stopped by the US forces, land route via Turkey is being stopped by Turks. Only way is now the sea route, so the Iranians have announced "investments" in Latakia port. So  Israel will be pressured to stop any ships heading to Latakia. The fight is now on between the GCC/NATO/Turkey against the Iranians/Syria. 

On the face of it, it looks increasingly likely that this war will be financed by the GCC and that the only way Bashar Al Assad will be removed is via external intervention most likely via Turkey.